Some New Year thoughts and observations for 2024 and 2025
By Hugh Holland
- 2023 is now officially the hottest year on record. Climate Change is clearly the world’s most serious developing problem that is already affecting the cost and quality of life everywhere.
- COP 28 was a turning point. The world has agreed to pursue “an orderly and just transition from fossil fuels to the energy efficiencies and clean sources that are now available”.
- Unfortunately, our federal and most provincial Conservatives and the US Republicans have tied themselves to what is quickly becoming an untenable position, supporting the highly profitable oil and gas industry at any cost to everything else. Trump says he will “Drill, Drill, Drill”. Danielle Smith and her 100-member delegation to COP 28 tried but failed to be spoilers. Pierre Poilievre has shown no credible ideas to move in sync with the world on climate change issues.
- Alberta’s second biggest industry, grain, and beef production is already seeing reduced capacity due to climate-induced droughts. They are reducing the size of their beef cattle herds because they cannot feed them.
- The Liberals are on-side with the world’s direction on energy and have tabled credible plans to help Alberta’s oil and gas industry use their formidable expertise and resources to move into the rapidly emerging era of clean energy. Deep geothermal and hydrogen are enormous opportunities for Alberta’s biggest Industry. That is recognized by several political and industry leaders in Alberta, but not by the Conservative party at either the provincial or federal levels.
- Regardless, recent polls indicate the Conservatives are now leading. The right-wing media (Sun Media, Conrad Black’s National Post etc.) see all this and smell blood. They want it to be Liberal blood rather than the blood of their Conservative supporters. So, the right-wing media has gone to even further extremes with relentless, vicious daily personal attacks on Trudeau.
- But it is increasingly clear to informed people that the recent spikes in migration, and the cost of housing, food, and energy, are not unique to Canada. They were driven by supply chain interruptions resulting from the global pandemic, foreign wars and climate-induced droughts, floods, and severe infrastructure damage. But inflation is beginning to moderate.
- Like all of us, Trudeau has his strengths and weaknesses, but he is doing a credible job as leader, which is to assemble a team of capable ministers and then support and coordinate that team. Trudeau has an innate sense of fairness and generosity. He can fight, but he is NOT a ruthless mean-spirited person. After 8 years of Liberal government in these turbulent times, Canada ranks well above the G7 average in all areas of financial performance and human development. On the other hand, Poilievre is a one-man show, with crazy ideas about cryptocurrency etc. And he has not showcased any capable ministers to form a credible cabinet.
- Polls can change in the 22 months before the mandatory 2025 election, and the Conservatives have put themselves in a tough spot. If they weaken their untenable support for Alberta’s oil and gas industry, they will lose votes in Alberta. Conservatives may manage to lead in the popular vote, but not enough to form government. Neither the NDP, nor the Block Quebecois, nor the Greens, nor Independents will agree to a coalition with the current dogmatic Conservative leader, so the Trudeau Liberals will likely continue as government.
- Moderate Conservatives don’t trust Poilievre but out of some deep-rooted sense of loyalty cannot bring themselves to vote for Trudeau. They rationalize their position by saying they would vote Liberal if the eminently capable Mark Carney became Liberal leader. That is not likely to happen. As the UN Special Envoy on Climate Action and Finance, Carney is playing an important global role that is poised to become even more important with the outcome of COP 28. He will likely continue in his current role to lead the global financing of “an orderly and just global transition to clean energy”. The world needs his proven talent on that job.
Hugh Holland is a retired engineering and manufacturing executive now living in Huntsville, Ontario.
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