Listen Up! Are we on the brink?

Anyone with their eyes open is now aware of the attack on Israel on Saturday night by Iran. It was in response to an air strike allegedly carried out by Israel (they have not yet claimed responsibility) on the Iranian Consulate annex building adjacent to the Iranian Embassy in Damascus, Syria. The attack took place on April 1, and sixteen people were killed, including top commanders and officers of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

At first blush, it must be asked why the Israelis would undertake such an attack. They must have known that Iran would retaliate and that they had been waiting for years to find an excuse to attack Israel directly. And indeed, Iran announced almost immediately that there would be a proportional response.

But there is something deeper going on here because the response when it came, was far from proportional. Iran sent over 300 drones, ballistic, and cruise missiles aimed at Israel on Saturday night. Many more rockets were fired on Israel at the same time from Lebanon by Hezbollah, a puppet military arm loyal to Iran.

Forces from the United States and Great Britain played a key role in helping intercept most of the missiles and drones from Iran before they reached Israel, but nevertheless, Iran was able to show the world their military capability, which is beyond the expectations of many in the Intelligence community.

The grave question now is how Israel will respond. United States President Joe Biden, while stating that America’s support of Israel is “iron clad” and while they played a key role in defending Israel on Saturday, also made it very clear to the Prime Minister of Israel that America will play no part in a retaliation by Israel on Iran.

Why is that? It is because such involvement by the United States could well be the straw that breaks the camel’s back, leading us all into World War Three. What happens between Israel and Iran in the near future will be a crucial factor in what happens in the rest of the world.

Bob Rae, Canada’s Ambassador to the United Nations, heading into a meeting of the Security Council this morning to debate the Iranian attack on Israel, said this on social media: “In all parts of life, but especially in war, it is crucial to understand the difference between the temptation of impulse and the wisdom of understanding consequences. Second, remember how rare it is to be angry and smart at the same time. Anger drives out both empathy and the ability to listen.”

The hard facts are that the world is a tinderbox in many ways right now, and any match thrown to it could well result in global conflict. If ever there was a time to recognize the difference between the temptation of impulse and the wisdom of understanding consequences, this is it.

Another reality is that over the last few years, there has been an attack on world order. The United States, a key component in relation to the balance of power, has been weakened on the global stage by its internal struggles. Consequently, this, at least in part, has prompted powers like Russia and China and, indeed, North Korea and Iran to push their own agendas at the expense of the Western powers, ultimately threatening their security and their sovereignty.

Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran are now firm allies. They all have agendas that are not compatible with democratic principles. They have the resources, and they believe they now have the opportunity to push forward with their view of what the world should look like.

On the other hand, the United States, Great Britain, France, Germany, Canada, other NATO members, Japan, and Israel are allies. However, the United States is the core of Western defense, and its ability and willingness to continue to fulfill that role are now in question.

In any country, you can only have one Chief Magistrate at a time. In the United States right now, there are two presidents: one who was clearly defeated in the last presidential election but doesn’t believe it, and the other who was actually elected.

The former, Donald Trump, calls the shots in the House of Representatives and is aggressively hostile to the current occupant of the White House. That makes it very difficult to govern, especially in times of potential global conflict when a unified sense of purpose and reaction is imperative.

I don’t know if we are on the brink of a Third World War, but I am pretty sure of two things. First, there are many elements of conflict in the world today that are similar to those that triggered the last World War. Second, a global conflict, especially one that may lead to war, cannot be resolved favorably if there is dissension, confusion, disloyalty, and a lack of determination amongst the allies.

Israel is an important ally of both the United States and Canada. Conversely, Israel is despised by Iran, Hezbollah, much of Syria, Lebanon, and Hamas. Their generational goal is to completely wipe out every Jewish person.

And if there was any belief that the preponderance of pro-Palestinian demonstrations around the Western world is about the tragic circumstances in the Gaza Strip rather than pure antisemitism, just look at how these have morphed into rabid celebrations over the attack on Israel by Iran.

The United States and Canada must stand by Israel and defend them against tremendous odds. Israel is clearly between a rock and a hard place, with Iran posturing on one flank and Hamas and Hezbollah attacking on the other. It is nothing less than a David and Goliath situation.

Israel, too, however, must recognize that they are a potential trigger for those who want conflict on a much larger scale. Any action by Israel to confront Iran that could develop into a third World War should be very carefully contemplated, not in anger, but definitely in terms of consequences.

Today, United States President Joe Biden has asked the G-7 nations to meet immediately to discuss the situation in the Middle East and work on a combined diplomatic solution. It is a very tall order, but I hope they can do it.

If we are not on the brink, we are close to it, and we desperately need to move back.

Hugh Mackenzie

Hugh Mackenzie has held elected office as a trustee on the Muskoka Board of Education, a Huntsville councillor, a District councillor, and mayor of Huntsville. He has also served as chairman of the District of Muskoka and as chief of staff to former premier of Ontario, Frank Miller.

Hugh has also served on a number of provincial, federal and local boards, including chair of the Ontario Health Disciplines Board, vice-chair of the Ontario Family Health Network, vice-chair of the Ontario Election Finance Commission, and board member of Roy Thomson Hall, the National Theatre School of Canada, and the Anglican Church of Canada. Locally, he has served as president of the Huntsville Rotary Club, chair of Huntsville District Memorial Hospital, chair of the Huntsville Hospital Foundation, president of Huntsville Festival of the Arts, and board member of Community Living Huntsville.

In business, Hugh Mackenzie has a background in radio and newspaper publishing. He was also a founding partner and CEO of Enterprise Canada, a national public affairs and strategic communications firm established in 1986.

Currently, Hugh is president of C3 Digital Media Inc., the parent company of Doppler Online, and he enjoys writing commentary for Huntsville Doppler.