Is there change in the air? That certainly seems to be the case across the border and in a less urgent way, one can see some signs of it here.
In the United States this week the red (Republican) wave widely projected by pollsters and politicians alike, never happened. Right-wing politics there moved closer to the center. Democrats held on to their narrow control of the Senate, and Republicans, while likely to win a majority in the House of Representatives after the agonizingly slow count of ballots is finally over, will only do so by the skin of their teeth and not with the runaway that was anticipated.
I think we can be sure of two things.
First, the back-room boys and girls, the pollsters, and the ever-present consultants will be busy scratching their heads and wondering what the hell happened, then working on a strategy to blame anyone but themselves, and finally looking for the sacrificial lamb.
And that’s the second thing. For the Republicans, the sacrificial lamb may finally be Donald Trump, and from my perspective, and I suspect from the perspective of many others, that may be the best outcome from these mid-term elections.
There is an oft-stated mantra that the only poll that counts is the one on election day. I believe that is right although the pollsters and political consultants would challenge that. Their jobs depend on accurate projections and sound political advice, although their qualifications sometimes don’t match the challenge.
I laughed at one definition I heard of consultants: “It takes two things to be a consultant, (you can also insert pollster here) grey hair and hemorrhoids. The grey hair makes them look distinguished. The hemorrhoids make them look concerned.” Sadly, I spent enough time in related fields to have seen a few of those.
But it is the poll on election day that counts and in this case, the turnout was large and the message clear. Surprisingly, it was not so much about the left or right on the political spectrum. There were no huge winners there either way.
It was, in my view, more a rejection of the toxicity and extremism of Trump-era politics and a statement that truth matters and that election deniers are wrong and potentially a danger to democracy. It was also likely a statement by many voters that they want to control their own lives. It was definitely a statement by voters that they want to see things done differently in the political world.
Over the next few weeks, members of both branches of Congress will elect their leadership. Their choices will reflect whether or not they have listened to the electorate and are willing to respond accordingly.
Certainly, in the past few days, there have been signs from elected Republicans that support for Trump-era politics is waning. A number are saying it is time to move on. Others, now that the midterms are behind them, may feel more able to move away from Trumpism to a more traditional and respected Republican Party.
Some folks are thinking outside of the box. A couple of House Republicans have floated the idea of Liz Cheney replacing Kevin McCarthy and becoming Speaker if the Republicans gain control of the House.
Not possible I thought because Cheney was not elected. But checking with an American friend steeped in political knowledge, I found that it was. Very unlikely, but possible. There is no requirement in the United States Constitution for the Speaker of the House to be one of its elected members.
In fact, I am told that at one time an idea by Trump supporters was briefly floated that if Republicans controlled Congress Trump could be elected Speaker, Biden and Harris impeached, and the Speaker, (Trump) being third in line for the Presidency, could move back into the White House!!
Unlikely scenarios aside, my hope and my belief are that these mid-term elections will signal the diminishment of Donald Trump’s influence over the Republican Party. Those that thought he would be an asset in these elections learned he was a liability. Many of the people he endorsed were defeated, especially those who supported his 2020 election denials.
It will be interesting to see if Trump goes ahead with his “exciting announcement” this week. If he does, and if it is a declaration that he will run for President again in 2024, it may not go as smoothly as he might hope. In fact, it may cause a civil war within the Republican camp. There are people waiting in the wings who may not be as afraid of him as they formerly were.
So, the question is, is there also a change in the air in Canada, when it comes to politics? Is there something we can learn from the mid-term elections in the United States? I tend to think so, on both counts.
As Americans have rejected extremism and toxicity, I think Canadians will too. The winds of change are different here, but they still exist. They are also less urgent as a general election is not upon us for several years unless the Robin Hood NDP stops propping up the Trudeau Government.
However, whether it is Conservatism or Liberalism, I believe that most people want to move back toward the middle of the political spectrum where there is respect for competing political viewpoints and an ability to find compromise when appropriate. ‘My way or the highway’ politics has not worked in the United States, and it will not work in Canada.
There is a federal by-election next month in the Liberal-held Riding of Mississauga-Lakeshore. They are running a high-profile candidate, former Ontario Finance Minister Charles Sousa.
Winning that by-election should be a romp in the park for the Trudeau government. If it is not, then just like the no-show red wave for the Republicans in the American mid-terms, it could signal a mood in Canada that suggests that the winds of change for a different way of doing politics are more alive and well here than some people believe.
We can only wait and see.
Hugh Mackenzie
Hugh Mackenzie has held elected office as a trustee on the Muskoka Board of Education, a Huntsville councillor, a District councillor, and mayor of Huntsville. He has also served as chairman of the District of Muskoka and as chief of staff to former premier of Ontario, Frank Miller.
Hugh has also served on a number of provincial, federal and local boards, including chair of the Ontario Health Disciplines Board, vice-chair of the Ontario Family Health Network, vice-chair of the Ontario Election Finance Commission, and board member of Roy Thomson Hall, the National Theatre School of Canada, and the Anglican Church of Canada. Locally, he has served as president of the Huntsville Rotary Club, chair of Huntsville District Memorial Hospital, chair of the Huntsville Hospital Foundation, president of Huntsville Festival of the Arts, and board member of Community Living Huntsville.
In business, Hugh Mackenzie has a background in radio and newspaper publishing. He was also a founding partner and CEO of Enterprise Canada, a national public affairs and strategic communications firm established in 1986.
Currently, Hugh is president of C3 Digital Media Inc., the parent company of Doppler Online, and he enjoys writing commentary for Huntsville Doppler.
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