“Stupid is as stupid does.” – Forrest Gump
Actually, I have no idea if we will have a federal election in Canada this Spring, but it will surprise no one that I do have an opinion about whether or not we should.
Jaime Watt is a friend and former colleague of mine. He is also a renowned national political strategist, often, but not always, with a conservative bent. In a recent article, headlined, ‘What to watch for in Canadian politics for 2026,’ he wrote the following:
“In Canadian politics, 2025 will be remembered as the year of Trump. In 2026, I regret to predict very little will change. In my last column, I argued that the U.S. midterms – and President Donald Trump’s rhetoric in the leadup – will turn Canada into an increasingly convenient target, spelling trouble for our economy and particularly for the looming CUSMA (free trade) renegotiations. This is a seismic risk. But it is far from the only political story we should be watching in the year ahead.”
Jaime Watt goes on to state that one of those stories we need to follow closely this year is the threat of separation referendums in both Quebec and Alberta. With that issue in particular, I could not agree more.
I can think of no greater risk to Canada’s sovereignty than these two debates and subsequent referendums taking place during an unprecedented period where Canada’s very existence as a nation is under serious threat from external sources.
We fool ourselves if we do not believe this threat is real. Canadian journalist Martin Regg-Cohn this week wrote, “American imperialists, Quebec sovereigntists and Alberta separatists are each in their own way, calling for the break-up of the country as we know it.”
Another Canadian journalist, Susan Delacourt, echoed the same concern. “The big difference between the 2026 threat to Canadian unity is that it’s coming not just from one province but three places – Quebec, Alberta and disturbingly, [an understatement if I have ever heard one] the United States.”
There is little that U.S. President Donald Trump enjoys more than exploiting the perceived weakness of others. He has made no secret of his ambitions related to Canada, and those who do not take him seriously have their heads buried deeply in the sand.
As former Alberta Premier Jason Kenney said in Calgary this weekend, “You cannot deal with the reality of the Trump threat by pretending it is not there.”
There are credible reports that leaders of the separation movement in Alberta have been meeting with senior officials in the Trump Administration. There can be little doubt that the President of the United States is not aware of this.
British Columbia Premier David Eby painted this action by some Alberta separatists as “treason.” A bit over the edge, perhaps, but frankly, under current circumstances, not that far off the mark.
Prime Minister Mark Carney’s response to these meetings is that he expects the Trump Administration to respect Canada’s sovereignty. That may be the nice and even the politically correct thing to say, but it is not nearly enough, especially when it cannot be clearer that President Trump does not respect Canada’s sovereignty. In fact, he opposes it.
I was born in Alberta and have experienced the loyalty to Canada as well as the frustration with the way that province has often been treated by the federal government, by generational members of my extended family in that province, three of whom have received the Order of Canada.
But to think that most Albertans would prefer a land- locked so-called independent jurisdiction tied to the apron strings of the United States, smacks of jumping from the frying pan into the fire, a concept that to me at least, is beyond comprehension.
As for Quebec separatists, they have been lobbying for independence from Canada for decades, and there are real signs that this concept is raising its ugly head again.
In her recent article, Susan Delacourt also wrote, “Carney is not the first prime minister to have the threat of separation hang over him – Pierre Trudeau, Brian Mulroney and Jean Chretien all had to deal with that reality. But he’s (Carney) the first one that is forced to juggle domestic separatism with a White House that is flirting with the advantages of having a non-united Canada.”
What boggles the mind is that these separation discussions in Canada are taking place, and are being allowed to take place, during a time when Canada’s sovereignty is at its most vulnerable. I cannot think of a greater or more self-defeating gift for Canada to give to Donald Trump.
It is this concept that brought to mind for me that short but pithy statement by Forrest Gump, “Stupid is as stupid does.”
I now come to the question of whether we should have yet another federal election in the very near future. Two things come to mind.
First, if Canada is going to survive in its present form, it needs tough leadership right now, and that leadership needs to get its own house in order if it has any hope of dealing effectively with the Trump Administration in the United States.
It means a carrot and stick approach to any provinces, organizations, or individuals who promote dissension, separatism, or divisiveness that provides fodder to those who disrespect and undermine Canada’s sovereignty. If that means new and tougher laws, so be it.
Canada needs to demonstrate that it has built a house of stone that cannot be blown down by the big bad wolf, and it needs to do it now. If that doesn’t sound very Canadian, too bad. The wolf is at the door.
Second, the ability for a federal government to achieve what needs to be done with the consequences that may follow, and with the risks that must be taken, requires a very strong mandate from Canadian voters.
The current Liberal government does not have that. The voter is always right, and Canadians voted for a minority government in the last federal election, albeit a large one. They know the difference between a majority mandate elected by the people and one that is manufactured by those who are in power. Voters were willing to give Mark Carney a chance, but he was not given carte blanche.
While current polls show that the federal Liberals and Conservatives are relatively close, Mark Carney is well ahead of Pierre Poilievre as the preferred prime minister. That could change after Poilievre’s performance in Calgary this weekend has been widely acclaimed and not just by conservatives.
On the other hand, Mark Carney can be judged on his stewardship as Prime Minister during the last year, some of which has been very impressive.
Canada’s federal government will, during at least the next few years, face some of its greatest challenges since at least the Second World War. Yes, it will require cooperation from provincial leaders, but overall, it will need discipline, strength, ingenuity and toughness from the government of Canada.
Some will believe we already have that. Others will disagree. We need to figure that out. Canadians need to give an overwhelming majority to the government of their choice. That is why we need a general election sooner rather than later. It is that strength of purpose by Canadians that will help us survive.
The Trump Administration backs down to strength. Canadians need to demonstrate that we have that strength, resolve and unity and that we have a government in power with the mandate and the confidence of their citizens to achieve that.
Hugh Mackenzie has held elected office as a trustee on the Muskoka Board of Education, a Huntsville councillor, a District councillor, and mayor of Huntsville. He has also served as chairman of the District of Muskoka and as chief of staff to former premier of Ontario, Frank Miller.
Hugh has also served on a number of provincial, federal and local boards, including chair of the Ontario Health Disciplines Board, vice-chair of the Ontario Family Health Network, vice-chair of the Ontario Election Finance Commission, and board member of Roy Thomson Hall, the National Theatre School of Canada, and the Anglican Church of Canada. Locally, he has served as president of the Huntsville Rotary Club, chair of Huntsville District Memorial Hospital, chair of the Huntsville Hospital Foundation, president of Huntsville Festival of the Arts, and board member of Community Living Huntsville.
In business, Hugh Mackenzie has a background in radio and newspaper publishing. He was also a founding partner and CEO of Enterprise Canada, a national public affairs and strategic communications firm established in 1986.
Currently, Hugh is president of C3 Digital Media Inc., the parent company of Doppler Online, and he enjoys writing commentary for Huntsville Doppler.
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I think a Spring election would be a bad idea. This country is obviously divided, fairly evenly between two parties, and another election is unlikely to change that. Another election might give one party a slim majority, however the message to Albertans, to Quebecers and to Trump will be the same. The country is divided, and a divided country is weak.
Given that this situation exists already, a true leader would recognize that half the country did not vote for his/her party. The PM’s job is to govern for all Canadians, not ignore half of them and imply that their vote didn’t count. This would not unite the country, nor make us stronger.
At this time, given our situation, we don’t need another election. The country has already spoken. I think we need a true coalition government. Carney should recognize that almost half the country wants PC leadership, and PC ideas, and he should be the statesman we expect him to be – a leader that respects all Canadians, because all Canadians should count.
For the foreseeable future, I think it would benefit all Canadians if power were shared. For example, if some Conservative MPs were given cabinet posts, it would send a clear message to all those that challenge our sovereignty that we are indeed united, and stronger as a result. Poilievre, to his credit, has already offered to work with the Carney government on some issues. That offer has not been accepted, nor reciprocated to my knowledge. Unfortunately Carney has not shown the same leadership. A prime example of this is the recent floor crossing of two Conservative MPs. The MPs in question were welcomed into the Liberal Party by Carney with open arms. The message was clear. Carney did not respect the will of the people, and he did not respect the democratic process. He showed us all that, first and foremost, he wants power and he will forego principle if it benefits him personally. This self-centered leadership, and Carney’s obsession with power to further his personal agenda, should not be good enough for Canadians. This does not set a good example for anyone. Until we have good leadership that is willing to work in the interests of ALL Canadians, this country will continue to be divided and the threats will always be there.
Hugh, great thoughts. The current situation reminds me of the Pearson, Diefenbaker era where we had several minorities. I think we had good government with Pearson’s minorities. The Conservatives now will be supportive of the right policies. We do not need another election and might get the same result. So far Carney has been excellent with words and modest for results and action, most of which he lifted from the Conservative platform. Nothing wrong with that. The Liberals adopted lots of Preston Manning’s ideas, too.
Well said Hugh. We are indeed experiencing troublesome history.
Last election many Canadians were not that familiar with Carney but they knew they didn’t like Poilievre. That part is still true.
“Canada’s Conservative leader is in serious trouble, polls reveal”
Because most Canadians dislike him.
Most Canadians appreciate Carney’s efforts.
After Davos if there was an election now Carney would win in a landslide.
Carney is out there making trade deals with countries other than the US. As Trump restricts trade with Canada.
Yet Conservatives re-elected Poilievre leader even after he was ahead 20+ points and still lost and didn’t even win his own seat.
“Stupid is as stupid does.”
Indeed.
Liberals are ecstatic PP was re-elected.
Carney will win in a landslide next election.