I was disappointed this week, although not particularly surprised, about the caucus coup that removed Erin O’Toole as leader of the Conservative Party of Canada—to the point that I have resigned as a member of that party.
I don’t believe he was a perfect leader. One cannot lead and at the same time be all things to all people, as he tried to be.
But first of all, I have a problem with a process that allows 73 members of Parliament to remove a national leader who was elected by many thousands of members of the Conservative Party. It is interesting to note that the Trudeau Liberal MPs rejected that process. Their Conservative counterparts did not.
More importantly to me, however, is that O’Toole’s ouster signals loudly and clearly that the federal Conservative Party has moved further to the right on the political spectrum than many so-called Progressive Conservatives are willing to go. I am one of those. The battle to unite all Conservatives under one roof has been lost.
Instead, what I see is a jousting match between the Conservative Party and Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party of Canada to see which one can “out-right” the other. Candice Bergen, the interim leader of the Conservative Party says that her priority is to unify caucus. That will be interesting to watch as no one has really been successful in doing that since Brian Mulroney was prime minister.
It is significant, however, that Candice Bergen is an acknowledged right-wing social Conservative, rigid in some of her ideology, supportive of convoy occupiers staying in Ottawa, and, to boot, she has shown some signs in the recent past of Trumpism. Then you have Pierre Poilievre, another acknowledged social Conservative, seeking to become Conservative leader and widely seen as the heir apparent.
Put all of this together and there is little doubt that while the mantra that the tent is wide will no doubt continue, the right wing of the Conservative Party is firmly in control. There is no longer any traditional conservative balance. I have not changed but the party has and, sadly, that is the end of the road for me.
The Liberal back-room boys and girls must be chortling in their Cabernet right now. The Freedom Convoy came to Ottawa to destroy the Trudeau Government. Instead, it is the Tories who are in disarray.
With the convoy continuing its presence, there is a standoff in Ottawa right now, one that is spreading to other parts of the country. It is not a truckers’ protest over vaccinations anymore. Many of them have gone home and 90 per cent of them were never there in the first place. Rather, it is a demonstration that has turned into an occupying force, promoted by fringe activists whose stated aim is to overthrow the government. I know there are people who do not like me saying that, but it is my opinion. Here is why.
Demonstrators are like people in Huntsville and Bracebridge who have strong views and honest disagreement and line the sidewalks with their signs, waving and thanking people who drive by and honk their support. That is a peaceful protest.
Occupiers are those who won’t go home, who issue manifestos, who are there to disrupt, who block intersections, impede freedom of movement, wave flags and signs of insurrection, embrace noise pollution, and build wooden structures to maintain their occupation.
That, and not peaceful protests, is what results in a stand-off. At some point it will have to end.
I would love to be a fly on the wall in both the Liberal and Conservative back rooms as they try to figure out how to bring that about. I see two possible scenarios here, neither of them very pretty.
The Conservatives could reverse their position on the convoy—in spite of the implicit support by a number of their elected members—some of whom, immediately after dumping O’Toole, posed shamelessly for all to see with a group of actual troublemakers.
But Tories can read the tea leaves as well as anyone. They will know that many, if not most, Canadians are now getting tired of the convoy and the protests around the country, just as they are tired of the pandemic. That can be a toxic mix. If things continue to be ugly, Conservatives will be an easy target to blame because of the support they have shown to the remaining agitators.
So, watch for heir apparent, Pierre Poilievre, to now say to the current organizers of the convoy that their message has been heard and that to achieve their ultimate objective their best course is to return to their homes and work hard to make him the next prime minister of Canada. He will be then viewed by many as defusing the harmful activism (something the prime minister failed to do) and at the same time he is promoting his own interests. A win-win, from his perspective.
On the other side of the House, Liberal advisors may well be telling Prime Minister Trudeau to hang tough, to see how this plays out, and, if as expected, anger grows across the country and the protests and disruptions continue, blame it all on the Tories.
Then, those advisors might tell the PM he would have an opportunity to do something he could never get away with under any other circumstances. He could call yet another snap election on the basis that the disruption of the country could not continue, and that Canadians need to send a clear message that they have had enough.
Liberals can read the tea leaves too. If they can corral that anger, if they can take advantage of the disarray within the Conservative ranks, there is a prospect they could achieve what they have been unable to achieve in the past two elections: a majority government.
It would give Justin Trudeau four more years at the helm, if he wants it, a prospect that has been dimming for him by the week, and it would also send a message to at least one of his wannabe successors that he is going to be around for a while, so cool it. A double win for the prime minister.
In relation to the COVID-19 pandemic, most Canadians know that we are in sight of the finish line. Most hopefully also know that we would not be there were it not for stringent precautions over the past two years. But it has been annoying, inconvenient, and exhausting. That has the potential of making us angry and vulnerable and, at least to some degree, it has worked.
The Freedom Convoy, or whatever you want to call it, has played on that anger and vulnerability. And so now will the Liberals and Conservatives as they work to take advantage of it.
Whatever the outcome, when it comes to the safety, prosperity, and the peaceful pursuit of happiness for Canadians, I am having a hard time seeing a positive outcome.
That should concern us all.
Hugh Mackenzie
Hugh Mackenzie has held elected office as a trustee on the Muskoka Board of Education, a Huntsville councillor, a District councillor, and mayor of Huntsville. He has also served as chairman of the District Muskoka and as chief of staff to former premier of Ontario, Frank Miller.
Hugh has served on a number of provincial, federal and local boards, including chair of the Ontario Health Disciplines Board, vice-chair of the Ontario Family Health Network, vice-chair of the Ontario Election Finance Commission, and board member of Roy Thomson Hall, the National Theatre School of Canada, and the Anglican Church of Canada. Locally, he has served as president of the Huntsville Rotary Club, chair of Huntsville District Memorial Hospital, chair of the Huntsville Hospital Foundation, president of Huntsville Festival of the Arts, and board member of Community Living Huntsville.
In business, Hugh Mackenzie has a background in radio and newspaper publishing. He was also a founding partner and CEO of Enterprise Canada, a national public affairs and strategic communications firm established in 1986.
Currently, Hugh is president of C3 Digital Media Inc., the parent company of Doppler Online, and he enjoys writing commentary for Huntsville Doppler.
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Hello Hugh. It’s taken a lot of years, but finally you’ve seen the light! Lol. Good move resigning from membership in the Conservative Party. I too am moving further left as I age. Good on you!