This week in Muskoka, one of the most crucial summit meetings in Canada’s history will take place at Deerhurst Resort in Huntsville, less than 3 kilometers from where I live. All 13 provincial or territorial premiers are slated to be here as well as Prime Minister Mark Carney.
Day one will include meetings with Indigenous leaders, and on Tuesday, the Prime Minister will meet with the Council of the Federation (the premiers).
Ontario Premier Doug Ford who is the outgoing Chair of the Council of the Federation, will be the host of this meeting which he says, “will be an opportunity to work together on how to respond to President Trump’s latest threat and how we can unleash the full potential of Canada’s economy.”
On August 1st, less than two weeks from now, assuming current threats and timelines remain in place, one of two things will happen: Either there will be the nuts and bolts of a new Trade Agreement between Canada and the United States, or American President Donald Trump will be in a position to impose a 35 percent tariff on Canadian goods entering that country.
Canada is potentially running out of time to get their act together and that is why these meetings in Muskoka are so important. Prime Minister Carney has already indicated that there is little prospect of a no tariff agreement between Canada and the United States.
So, the time for the premiers and the Prime Minister to get their act together and to sing from the same songbook has arrived. To be fair, significant progress has already been achieved in breaking down provincial barriers. But there is more to be done.
The very presence of all 13 premiers and the Prime Minister of Canada at the Muskoka summit underscores the importance and immediacy of a coordinated and unified response to the threat and risk imposed on this country by the Trump Administration.
In my view, it is important that the meetings taking place this week include consensus on the bottom line in trade negotiations with the United States, that is, where agreement can be reached and where the line is drawn. Equally important in these discussions is a plan of action in case a reasonable trade agreement between our two countries cannot be reached.
Plans need to be developed and announced to ameliorate the effect of tariffs on key Canadian industries such as steel, aluminum, and the auto sector. This will require, first and foremost, reaching out successfully to new trading partners, government subsidies where required, tough reciprocal tariffs, and insisting that all infrastructure and energy projects contemplated in recent federal legislation be carried out by Canadian companies, using Canadian products and materials.
Of course, all of this cannot be accomplished in three days, even in God’s country! But agreement on first principles, the development of a framework, a timeline, and a scope of responsibility can be.
Transparency is not always possible, especially under the chaotic circumstances within which Canada is now forced to operate when it comes to the Trump Administration in the United States. However, by the time August 1st rolls around, Canadians are going to want answers to a number of questions.
Will the deadlines that are set for trade negotiations be met? If not, how long will Canadians have to put up with the uncertainty of the tariff and sovereignty threats coming from the United States? If a trade agreement can be reached by August 1st, will it be fair for Canada? Most importantly, if a reasonable trade agreement cannot be achieved, what is the plan for Canada going forward? On these and other questions, Canadians will not suffer being left in the dark for much longer.
If the Trump Administration does move forward with massive tariffs on or about August 1st, Canada needs to respond quickly, and Canadians will need to know what that response entails.
As one of his first legislative acts as Prime Minister, Mark Carney obtained parliamentary approval to fast track many infrastructure, energy and interprovincial projects to stimulate Canada’s economy and lower dependency on the United States. The timing of this is important and cannot be spread over decades. It needs to be ready to go now.
Making that happen will be a major issue facing provincial leaders this coming week. It will not be easy. There is more work to do on breaking down provincial barriers. Agreements on the priority of new initiatives need to be reached with all provinces and not just a few. There is also important work to do related to consultation, but that must be addressed over a definitive period of time and not in a manner that delays the steps that Canada must take relatively soon.
A key component of the meetings in Muskoka this week will be consultations and discussions with Canada’s Indigenous population. Under section 35 of The Constitutional Act,1982, Canada has a legal obligation to consult Indigenous peoples when decisions may impact their lives. This consultation must be undertaken in good faith, but it does not amount to a veto.
Of course, in addition to Canada’s legal obligations, consulting with First Nation communities about fundamental changes to this country is the right thing to do and should include significant equity opportunities for Indigenous peoples. But it must be accomplished within the parameters and timing of Canada’s ability to do whatever is required to protect our economy and our national sovereignty. This is a framework that must also be addressed by provincial premiers and the federal government. Muskoka would be a good place to do that.
Mark Carney has already been attacked and accused of bowing to the United States in relation to critical trade negotiations. In my view, it is too early to conclude that.
However, August 1st may become the benchmark from which Carney’s accomplishments will be judged. He will need the parameters either of a comprehensive trade deal with the United States or a clear and transparent strategy for Canada to move forward effectively, without the benefit of a productive relationship with the United States.
Given the historic uncertainty of dealing with an American President like Donald Trump, I believe Canadians would accept either of these two options.
In the absence of one or the other, however, the honeymoon currently enjoyed by Mark Carney will be over.
Hugh Mackenzie
Hugh Mackenzie has held elected office as a trustee on the Muskoka Board of Education, a Huntsville councillor, a District councillor, and mayor of Huntsville. He has also served as chairman of the District of Muskoka and as chief of staff to former premier of Ontario, Frank Miller.
Hugh has also served on a number of provincial, federal and local boards, including chair of the Ontario Health Disciplines Board, vice-chair of the Ontario Family Health Network, vice-chair of the Ontario Election Finance Commission, and board member of Roy Thomson Hall, the National Theatre School of Canada, and the Anglican Church of Canada. Locally, he has served as president of the Huntsville Rotary Club, chair of Huntsville District Memorial Hospital, chair of the Huntsville Hospital Foundation, president of Huntsville Festival of the Arts, and board member of Community Living Huntsville.
In business, Hugh Mackenzie has a background in radio and newspaper publishing. He was also a founding partner and CEO of Enterprise Canada, a national public affairs and strategic communications firm established in 1986.
Currently, Hugh is president of C3 Digital Media Inc., the parent company of Doppler Online, and he enjoys writing commentary for Huntsville Doppler.
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