Hugh Mackenzie is taking a break from Listen Up! This is a guest commentary by Dave Wilkin.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has blinked on his signature file, climate change.
After eight years of trumpeting his commitment and actions to become a world leader in reducing emissions, the centerpiece of his climate change plan, his carbon tax, has been compromised, undermined by a panicked move to shore up cratering Liberal support in Atlantic Canada. Exempting emissions-intensive heating oil for three years from the carbon tax mostly benefits Atlantic provinces. Only three percent of Canadian households heat with oil, but in Atlantic Canada, it’s up to 40 percent. The cry-outs of unfairness from other provinces/territories & opposition parties with calls for exemptions for much cleaner-burning natural gas and propane grow louder. Good grief, what did they expect?
In announcing this news, Trudeau also said they were “doubling down” on commitments to fight climate change. Seriously? He pointed to more incentives for heat pumps in Atlantic Canada and doubled the rebates for rural residents. Why did he wait until now? Looks like more attempts to shore up his sinking poll numbers. Yet despite the growing pressure, he has flatly stated that there will be no more carve-outs from the carbon tax. But the precedent is now set, and Canadians can see securing votes and protecting Liberal seats trumps all else. Rural Economic Development Minister Gudie Hutchings even said that if Western and Prairie provinces want to get carbon pricing carve-outs, they should elect more Liberal ministers. So much for Trudeau’s populist slogan ‘putting a price on pollution’.
So what progress has Trudeau made on reducing emissions from fossil fuels? According to the Energy Institute’s 2023 Energy Statistical Review, we find progress has been underwhelming, falling just 6 percent since Trudeau became Prime Minister, leaving the primary energy share from fossil fuels unchanged at 65 percent. Looks like Trudeau’s carbon tax thus far has been a bust. It has however been successful in contributing to rising costs across the economy, the financial impacts of which far exceed the Climate Action Incentive Payments for the average household.
Looking at the global picture, again from the Energy Institute’s 2023 Statistical Review, we see emissions from combustion continue to rise to new heights, following a steep decline in 2020 due to the pandemic impacts. In 2022 they rose in both non-OECD countries (66 percent global emission share) and OECD countries (34 percent share). Even in the EU, where almost all of the countries with material carbon pricing reside, emissions dropped a tiny ½ percent in 2022, with much of that drop due to energy cutbacks in response to Russian energy import cuts. Decades of rising fuel taxes and increasingly restrictive regulations have still left fossil fuels comprising over 70 percent of their primary energy and leaving over 50 percent of all their energy imported.
Replacing today’s fossil fuel-based energy system will take a lot of time, huge capital investments, and more innovation. The pace of the transition will be determined primarily by countries’ economic capabilities. Driving up the cost of fossil fuels with high taxes and restricting domestic supply through excessive regulation is fraught with problems and risks. Outside of the energy-insecure EU, and now Canada, no country is following that path. The reality is that fossil fuels remain a necessity, as affordable alternatives are just not available for most households today. Government incentives and subsidies help, but they are limited by government fiscal realities. An energy transition has to happen, but it won’t be fast enough to achieve ambitious net zero targets, and thus the need for much more climate change impact mitigation investment. Much of this seems to elude the Trudeau government.
In a previous Doppler commentary, I wrote that the ‘winds of change’ were blowing for PM Trudeau. With the flip-flop on his carbon tax, we can see how desperate this Liberal government has become. I am now more convinced that the time left for PM Trudeau’s leadership is quickly shrinking.
Dave Wilkin is a Professional Engineer, with a master’s degree in Electrical Engineering from the University of Toronto. His career spans over 40 years in Information Technology, banking, energy, and consulting. A former resident of Huntsville, Ontario, he now lives in Burlington but still spends time at his Huntsville area cottage.
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Bob Braan says
The Liberal pause in carbon tax on heating oil across Canada is just for 3 years to allow people to switch to home heating with heat pumps. Even with the carbon tax removed oil is still far more expensive to heat with than natural gas, including the tax, that most Canadians use.
On new builds heat pumps can be less expensive than a natural gas furnace plus a/c.
Heat pumps replace both.
Modern cold climate air source heat pumps work down to -25C then the built in resistance heat kicks in as required so they work at any temp. No backup furnace needed.
Ground source heat pumps don’t need backup heat at all as the ground temp down a few metres is always much higher than the air temp in winter.
Most popular type in Sweden.
Search “How Sweden electrified its home heating — and what Canada could learn.”
To learn a little bit about modern heat pumps:
Search “Will a heat pump work in my region’s climate? How low can it go? Your questions answered”
And search “How do Canadians like their heat pump? People from three provinces tell the story.”
There is another type of heat pump that drastically cuts costs and GHG emissions and avoids multi-billion dollar new generation.
Search “A Heat Pump Water Heater Will Save All The Electricity You’ll Need To Power Your Electric Vehicle” compared to electric resistance water heaters so ZERO new energy would be needed for EVs.
In the US after federal, state and utility rebates they are the least expensive type to buy and, by far, the least expensive to operate.
In California they will pay $3KUSD to switch from GHG spewing natural gas to a heat pump water heater.
$3KUSD is more than it’s worth.
If Canada was serious about net zero we would have matching rebates like the US and avoid multi-billion dollar new generation.
Energy conservation, storage and shifting demand to off peak times with timers has the same effect as new generation for pennies on the dollar.
In Ontario simply putting a timer (EH40 at HD) on your existing electric resistance water heater and switching to the ultra low 2.8 cents per kWh overnight rate means the operating cost is lower than natural gas and no ever-increasing carbon tax. In that case gas water heaters would be obsolete since they are far more expensive to buy and install and more expensive to operate.
You just have to avoid the weekday 28 cents per kWh rate 4-9 pm on the new plan if you can. The rest of the weekday is the same or lower cost.
BBQ or gas stove and a toaster oven for cooking avoids most of the high cost weekday time. Toaster ovens use 1/4 the energy as a full size oven.
There is no higher rate on weekends so you save more on weekends than you do during the week.
We will save about $150/year with timers on the hot water tank and hot tub. Without an EV.
The ultra low overnight rate can be used to charge your new EV.
Only $100/year to “fuel” an EV the size of a Model 3 including the 1.5 cent per kWh delivery charge.
15 kWh per 100 km for 15K kms/year is $100..
Instead of $100 every week or two for gas.
Actually FREE “fuel” since the carbon tax rebate covers it.
Ontario used to have rebates for EVs, energy conservation and timers.
Many provinces have EV rebates on top of the federal $5K rebate.
In PQ the total is $12K which makes a little Chevy Bolt EV cheaper than a Honda Civic.
And a giant base Ford Lightning SuperCrew cab 4×4 EV pickup cheaper than the base ICE SuperCrew 4×4 in PQ.
Ontario used to have a $14K EV rebate.
That would have made the total rebate $19K in Ontario.
But Doug Ford killed the additional EV rebate here.
Energy demand in Ontario went down for 12 years from 157 TWh to 132 TWh from 2005 until 2017 in spite of the population going up when we used to have energy conservation rebates..
Avoiding billions of dollars in new generation.
Conservation, storage and shifting demand to off peak with timers has the same effect as new generation for pennies on the dollar.
Until Ford in 2018 cancelled all the conservation programs and demand is skyrocketing again.
He also cut 750 green energy projects already under construction, wasting hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars, saying we didn’t need the power at the time.
Now he’s blowing billions of your dollars on new GHG spewing gas plants instead.
The City of Thorold blocked one of the plants for environmental reasons. No kidding.
Search “Doug Ford government wants new gas plants to boost Ontario’s electricity system”
Ontario used to be 96% non-fossil fuel power.
Now it’s down to 90% and dropping fast since Doug Ford. Unlike most of the rest of the world.
Conservative Ostrich with his head in the sand, Doug Ford, means higher energy usage, higher costs and higher emissions.
Permanently.
Bob Braan says
“The world is on fire and the last thing we should do is build gas plants’: OPG offers Napanee $4.8 million to host plant”
Search “OPG offers Greater Napanee $4.8 million inducement to support its proposed new gas plant”
“Fortunately, Ontario has much cleaner and lower cost options to power its air conditioners on hot summer days. For example, according to the Royal Bank, Ontario can avoid the need for NEW gas plants and save $500 million per year by investing in technologies to increase our energy efficiency and shift demand from peak to off-peak periods.”
For pennies on the dollar.
Which was the case in Ontario before Doug Ford.
GHG spewing dirty gas is the most expensive source of power per kWh.
“The cities of Kingston, Thorold and Toronto have passed resolutions opposing new gas plants in their communities. Hopefully, Greater Napanee will do so too.”
Only Conservative Ostriches, like Danielle Smith in Alberta, Doug Ford in Ontario, and others think building GHG spewing gas plants is a good idea.
While the earth literally burns.
Obviously Smith is bought and paid for by the oil and gas industry. What is Ford’s excuse?
Do his developer buddies also build dirty nat gas power plants? That would explain it.
Smith in Alberta even spent taxpayer dollars for ads in other provinces falsely claiming green energy means power outages. Everyone else in the world, including Alberta, knows that’s not true.
Search “86% Of New US Electric Utility Generation Capacity Coming From Non-Fossil Fuels In 2023.”
And “New Solar + Battery Price Crushes Fossil Fuels, Buries Nuclear” Storage makes solar and wind available 24/7.
For the Ostriches not aware, Ontario is building 7 grid storage power projects totalling 739 MW of capacity. Many areas are shutting down gas peaker plants in favour of storage of clean energy.
Doug Ford wants to build more GHG spewing dirty gas plants but communities are stopping him.
More storage projects are needed to avoid dirty nat gas plants.
Grids are only near peak for a few hours at a time a few times a year. So battery storage projects are clearly viable and very valuable to assist at peak times around the world.
Along with increasing energy efficiency and shifting demand from peak to off-peak to avoid any new generation. As was the case in Ontario previous to Doug Ford.
“Ontario’s electricity system moves forward with largest energy storage procurement ever in Canada”
“the Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) announced it is moving forward with the procurement of seven new energy storage projects to provide 739 MW of capacity.”
“Storage facilities charge up during off-peak hours, taking advantage of Ontario’s clean energy supply mix, and inject energy back into the grid when it is needed most.”
Maintain existing nuclear and add solar, wind, storage and energy conservation is the way forward.
Not dirty, GHG spewing gas plants.