By Dave Wilkin
The 2024 edition of the World Energy’s Statistical Review was recently released. Below I highlight some key statistics from it, then share my takeaways and how they may affect Canadian energy policy direction.
Global primary energy consumption continues to rise, growing 2% last year, while the renewables (mostly wind and solar, excluding hydro) grew 12%, now comprising 8% of the global energy mix, unchanged from 2022. Nuclear and Hydro had minimal growth. Fossil fuels are still comprised of over 80% of the global energy mix, and their related emissions have reached a new high, rising over 8% over the last decade.
Diving deeper, we see stark differences. In non-OECD (mostly developing) countries, primary energy consumption grew 22% over the decade, driven largely by fossil fuels growth, which make up 84% of their energy mix. Their emissions surpassed 70% of the global total. Notably, these countries collectively hold 90% of natural gas reserves and 85% of oil reserves, enough to last around 70 years, at current production levels. Renewables growth was a robust 18% last year (half in China), yet their energy mix share remained mostly unchanged at just under 7%.
In contrast, Europe’s primary energy consumption fell 10% and emissions declined 19% over the past decade. Renewables expanded 7% in 2023, bringing them up to a 15% energy mix share. European emissions now comprise just 9% of the global total. Yet fossil fuels still make up almost 70% of their energy mix and they remain very heavily dependent on imports, which still comprise over half of their primary energy. Last year Canada supplied only 1.5% of their imported oil, and no LNG, while the US supplied about 18% of their oil and 45% of their LNG. The majority of their energy imports still come from OPEC+ countries. Continuing cutbacks on energy imports from Russia have pushed them to further reduce consumption and pursue alternatives.
Over the past decade, US primary energy consumption rose 2%, oil increased 3% and natural gas was up a stunning 25%. Despite these increases, emissions declined 9%, largely from cleaner natural gas replacing coal. In contrast, Canada’s primary energy consumption and emissions fell around 3%, oil declined slightly, while natural gas grew almost 15%. Last year, renewables expanded about 4% in the US and 6% in Canada, pushing their energy mix share to just 9% and 5% respectively. Fossil fuels share remained at about 65% in Canada and 81% in the US. Notable, of our $152 billion in 2023 oil and gas exports (20% of all Canadian exports), almost all was US bound.
Here are key takeaways from this energy picture:
- The global energy transition is not on track to reach the 2050 net-zero emissions goal. Renewables are growing, but not at a sufficient rate to even offset continuing energy demand growth. This was echoed in the 2024 McKinsey Global Energy Perspective.
- Despite some progress in developed countries, non-OECD countries are the primary driver of fossil fuel growth. They have the reserves to continue on that path, pushing global emissions higher.
- In Europe, where most high carbon pricing resides & electricity and natural gas prices are triple ours, progress to net-zero emissions remains insufficient. After decades of significant policy efforts & spending, almost 70% of their energy still comes from fossil fuels, higher than ours. Energy insecurity from their continuing high dependence on imported fuels from undemocratic countries remains. Adding to this challenge, overly aggressive energy transition policies are driving growing deindustrialization.
- In the US, both oil and natural gas consumption continues to grow.
So how might things unfold on the Canadian political scene?
For the Trudeau government, no changes, despite Mark Carney’s arrival as a party advisor. They will continue with their carbon tax and other aggressive energy regulations & reduction targets, arguing the urgency to fight climate change remains top priority.
Conservatives will remind voters that under Trudeau, and despite his carbon tax, heavy regulations, and over $160 billion in committed climate-related spending, energy-related emissions declined just 3.4%. They will point out that Canada contributes just 1.5% (and declining) to global emissions and that the US doesn’t/won’t have a carbon tax, placing Canadian businesses/exports increasingly at a competitive disadvantage. They may also highlight the big European challenges.
After 9 years, this Liberal government is tired, and most voters are done with Trudeau. Under a conservative government, the carbon tax is history, aggressive climate targets, heavy industry regulations and green energy subsidies will likely be scaled back. Actions to significantly expand Canadian energy exports, including oil & especially LNG, looks likely.
Improving Canadian productivity & competitiveness while expanding Canadian energy and natural resource exports takes centerstage over fighting climate change (domestically). A big shift in energy policy is coming.
Dave Wilkin is a Professional Engineer, with a master’s degree in Electrical Engineering from the University of Toronto. His career spans over 40 years in Information Technology, banking, energy, and consulting. A former resident of Huntsville, Ontario, he now lives in Burlington but still spends time at his Huntsville area cottage.
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The future is not a fossil fueled dystopia as described by the author.
Hard to believe an engineer is not aware of the very rapid, dramatic transition to renewable power and storage around the world.
Or that renewables and storage are the least expensive source of power now.
“Giant batteries that ensure stable power supply by offsetting intermittent renewable supplies are becoming cheap enough to make developers abandon scores of projects for gas-fired generation world-wide.”
Or not aware of the carbon tax rebate.
Poilievre refuses to acknowledge it even exists.
Notice the author leaves out it’s existence as well.
As most Conservatives do.
It’s very misleading to complain about the tax and not talk about the rebate at the same time.
Think the carbon tax is expensive?
It’s rebated.
The massive cost of climate change is not.
The carbon tax rebate is up to $2,160/year for a rural family of 4 in Alberta.
Or that most Canadians get back more in the rebate than they pay in the tax.
Conservatives are counting on the gullible who don’t follow the news at all.
They just repeat “alternative facts” ad nauseum. Like Trump.
Nuclear is far too expensive and takes far too long to build.
Watch the video: “French giant cancels nuclear power plant and turns off 6 nuclear reactors.”
China used to think nuclear had a bright future. Like many others.
Now, not so much.
Search “China’s quiet energy revolution: The switch from nuclear to renewable energy | RenewEconomy”
“Eye-popping new cost estimates released for NuScale small modular reactor”
Which is why it was cancelled. That was the one and only SMR certified in the US.
Grid batteries soak up the excess power and make it available whenever it’s needed.
So renewable power is available 24/7.
Massive grid batteries are being installed around the world.
“US solar industry explodes past pivot point with incredible exponential growth”
“Batteries the biggest player again as renewable records smashed in California, reach 156 pct of load | RenewEconomy”
“battery storage became, for the first time, the largest supply source in the evening peak of what is one of the world’s largest grids.”
‘Fuel” for an EV is actually FREE courtesy of the gas burners.
EV owners don’t pay the carbon tax on gas but still get the big rebate.
The rebate pays the entire yearly cost of “fuel” for an EV, road tax if any, and helps to pay off the EV.
On top of purchase rebates available in many provinces.
At least $5K total.
Despite what Poilievre says the carbon tax is a tiny part of inflation according to the BOC.
Search “There’s now a Bank of Canada number for carbon tax’s impact on inflation. It’s small”
“That number: 0.15 percentage points of the inflation increase can be attributed to the carbon tax.”
Almost nothing.
While climate change is hugely expensive and responsible for a huge part of inflation.
Search “From chocolate to home insurance, climate change is making life more expensive.”
Search “Explosive Growth – How Green Energy Fuels the Economic Boom”
“renewable energies made up ten percent of growth in global Gross Domestic Product – equivalent to 320 billion dollars.”
“Indeed, the growth rates for renewable energies last year were impressive: 80 percent of newly built electricity capacities worldwide were attributable to wind, solar, water, and biomass.”
“since 2021, more workers have been employed in the “clean” energy sector than in the fossil sector.”
That’s the clean, green economic future.
Not the fossil fueled dystopia described by the author.
Don’t believe anyone.
Read some of the many articles referenced here and in other comments referenced and watch the videos and decide for yourself.
Don’t be Conned.
Just like Trump, Poilievre keeps repeating “alternative facts” ad nauseum.
Just like Doug Ford and Dani Smith in Alberta.
Why? Because it works on the gullible.
https://doppleronline.ca/huntsville/a-need-for-optimism/
Remember “Poilievre ran in favour of carbon taxes multiple times in his career.”
The switch to a clean, green future means you will have far more disposable income.
Less money spent on energy, health care and cars.
“UK renewable boom plunges electricity prices”
“California neighborhoods with more EVs see better air quality, public health”
Inexpensive EVs from China, built in Mexico to avoid tariffs, are on the way.
Don’t believe anyone about the tax and rebate. Figure it out yourself.
We pay around $300/year carbon tax on gasoline and another $300/year carbon tax on natural gas and get $920/year back with the carbon tax rebate.
So it’s a net benefit of $320/year for us.
Like it’s a net benefit for most that Poilievre wants to axe.
The fact is inexpensive renewables and storage are very rapidly replacing fossil fuels for new and existing energy generation.
Watch this video: “US solar industry explodes past pivot point with incredible exponential growth”
This not only benefits the planet with a reduction in climate change but also benefits everyone with a drastic drop in costs.
The very large emitters, China, India and the US are rapidly switching to renewables and storage.
In fact “Analysis: China’s emissions set to fall in 2024 after record growth in clean energy”
More clean energy built in China last year than the rest of the world combined.
Combined.
India is putting in a lot of renewable energy as well.
Including:”In the salt deserts bordering Pakistan, India builds its largest renewable energy project”
“It will supply 30 gigawatts of renewable energy annually, enough to power nearly 18 million Indian homes.”
“China installed a record 293 gigawatts (GW) of wind and solar in 2023 – pushing its total capacity to 1,050GW, according to a new report.”
Watch the video “Coal power stations losing billions – China’s coal-fired power boom is OVER”
Oil rich Texas is actually leading the way in the US and recognizes the massive benefits.
Unlike Alberta. Or Ontario.
Watch the videos: “Texas beats California: How oil country became the renewable energy leader”
and “Batteries save Texas after coal plant fails during worst heatwave in decades”
While Ontario goes rapidly backwards due to Doug Ford.
https://doppleronline.ca/huntsville/environment-and-economics-the-keys-to-a-sustainable-future-hugh-holland-commentary/