Listen Up! Two countries. Two leadership problems

“There comes a time when wise leaders decide to step aside gracefully and pass the baton.”  – Dr. Jane Philpot, former Liberal Minister of Health

Bang on!

Clearly Jane Philpot is referring to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, but the same maxim is now equally appropriate for American President Joe Biden. It has been that kind of a week.

Certainly, both United States President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau have dug their heels in after a disastrous week for both of them. And their respective opponents, Donald Trump and Pierre Poilievre are hoping against hope that they stay like that. It is hard not to believe that if elections were held today, Donald Trump would again become President of the United States, and Pierre Poilievre would become Prime Minister of Canada.

But elections are not being held today, and as the old saying goes, there are many slips between cup and lips. 

I continue to believe that Justin Trudeau will step aside no later than this Fall. That may not be his wish, but the federal Liberal machine, both those who are elected and especially those in the back room who pull the strings, are too savvy and too power-hungry to allow a Leader to go into an election when all signs are that he will lose. 

If there were cracks showing in Liberal dissatisfaction with Justin Trudeau before last week, after losing one of the safest Liberal seats in the entire country, those cracks have developed into deep crevasses. 

In addition to Jane Philpot, Catherine McKenna, former Minister of the Environment and Climate Change in Trudeau’s government, has said, “Liberals need a new leader.”  It could be she is sniffing around for that job herself. 

After the defeat in the Riding of St. Paul’s, former Liberal heavyweight John Manley has also called for Trudeau to step aside, as have a number of others.  What Manley has said out loud and what many are thinking privately is that the Liberal Party under Justin Trudeau has moved too far to the left, a sentiment with which I strongly agree. 

The Liberal caucus as well is showing signs of panic, with some demanding an immediate meeting of caucus and others anonymously leaking their belief that Trudeau should go.  

Given all of that, it will be very difficult, in my view, for Justin Trudeau to hang on. I would bet even odds that there is a leadership race underway by the end of this year and a new Liberal leader in place before the next federal election.

The only caveat to that would be if the NDP’s Jagmeet Singh ever wakes up and realizes he will never be Prime Minister but could become Leader of the Opposition as things currently stand and consequently forces an immediate election which the Conservatives would joyfully support.  

The greater reality, however, is that Pierre Poilievre could face a new Liberal leader when an election is called. Also, it is important to remember that the anger and discontent directed at the current government is more about Justin Trudeau and to a lesser degree about Chrystia Freeland, than it is about the Liberal Party itself. With him gone and if Freeland is out of the way, it will be a tighter race and polling will reflect that. 

I believe, therefore, that Pierre Poilievre still has his work cut out for him. He is riding high, at least in part because of a strong belief by many Canadians that Justin Trudeau should go. Nevertheless, he has clearly shown himself and the Conservatives to be a reasonable alternative to the Trudeau Government. That is the job of the Official Opposition.

When the election comes, if Trudeau remains, it will be a slam dunk for Pierre Poilievre. If he goes, it could well be a brand-new ball game.

Turning now to the other political disaster of the week, let’s talk briefly about the presidential debate in the United States last Thursday. 

It was an embarrassment. As one Republican friend of mine said, “It was a painful 90 minutes and very disturbing for the country and the Western world.” He went on to say that the next several months will be “very dangerous for the West”.

Both Donald Trump and Joe Biden are elderly men. During the debate, both men, although very differently, exhibited traits that should disqualify them as presidential candidates.  

Donald Trump couldn’t (or wouldn’t) answer most questions. His character as a bully and a liar was front and centre. Factfinders identified 28 significant lies from Trump in a 90-minute debate. 

Joe Biden, on the other hand, was like a deer caught in the headlights. It was sad to watch him. He looked confused and disoriented. From that performance, it was easy to label him as having cognitive issues. To be fair, Biden’s performance at the State of the Union Address earlier this year and at the rallies he has attended since Debate Night were very different and of a much higher quality. His significant lapses at the debate, however, cannot be ignored. 

The question must then be asked: Why are these two men the best that one of the most powerful countries in the world can put forward to be its president? To me, it says something serious and alarming about the fragility of democracy in the United States. 

After last week’s debate and Joe Biden’s obvious state, many people probably believe that, in spite of all his flaws, Donald Trump will again become President of the United States. Polls released this coming week will indicate the degree to which the national debate has hurt Biden. 

At this moment, like Trudeau, Biden is being pretty clear that he is in for the long run. But although the situation in the States is limited by time, there are indications of a great deal of stress and concern within the Democratic Party, many calling for him to step down.

 In my view, it is not as certain that Biden will be forced off the ticket this close to the election as it is that Trudeau, with potentially a longer timeframe before an election, will step down.

Whether Joe Biden will be persuaded to drop out of the presidential race is still an open question. If he does, Donald Trump will face a new opponent, and that, too, could be a game changer. If he does not, and assuming Biden shows he can recover from the debate, the election in November will be, at best, a cliffhanger, and the outcome will be a real concern to Canada and much of the world. 

As a result of events that have taken place in the past week, there can be little doubt that there is much talk, strategizing and manipulation going on about leadership in both Ottawa and Washington. From both perspectives, the next several months will indeed be very interesting, if not somewhat scary, to watch.

Very soon, we will see who will pass the baton and who will not.

Hugh Mackenzie

Hugh Mackenzie has held elected office as a trustee on the Muskoka Board of Education, a Huntsville councillor, a District councillor, and mayor of Huntsville. He has also served as chairman of the District of Muskoka and as chief of staff to former premier of Ontario, Frank Miller.

Hugh has also served on a number of provincial, federal and local boards, including chair of the Ontario Health Disciplines Board, vice-chair of the Ontario Family Health Network, vice-chair of the Ontario Election Finance Commission, and board member of Roy Thomson Hall, the National Theatre School of Canada, and the Anglican Church of Canada. Locally, he has served as president of the Huntsville Rotary Club, chair of Huntsville District Memorial Hospital, chair of the Huntsville Hospital Foundation, president of Huntsville Festival of the Arts, and board member of Community Living Huntsville.

In business, Hugh Mackenzie has a background in radio and newspaper publishing. He was also a founding partner and CEO of Enterprise Canada, a national public affairs and strategic communications firm established in 1986.

Currently, Hugh is president of C3 Digital Media Inc., the parent company of Doppler Online, and he enjoys writing commentary for Huntsville Doppler.

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