By Hugh Holland
In his excellent book “Fall of Giants”, Ken Follett chronicles the period immediately before, during, and after WWI. In a nutshell, there was no reason for the war except for the egos of some royal families in Europe. There were 22 million deaths, 23 million wounded, and absolutely nothing significant or good came out of it. The current war in Ukraine was started and will likely end in much the same way.
The League of Nations was the first worldwide intergovernmental organization whose principal mission was to maintain world peace. It was proposed by US President Woodrow Wilson and founded on January 10, 1920, at the Paris Peace Conference that ended WWI. In 1945, after WWII, the League of Nations was expanded to become the United Nations. The 1948 Marshall Plan to rebuild the economies of western Europe, named after US Secretary of State George Marshall, is one of history’s most enlightened pieces of foreign policy (Reference 1). It led to decades without a global conflict.
Given that Climate Change is now the world’s # 1 existential threat, and given that war is the most environmentally destructive and economically wasteful human activity, it is time for all nations to review and re-commit to the excellent principles of the United Nations Charter they once agreed to.
UN Article 1
“The Purposes of the United Nations are:
1. To maintain international peace and security, and to that end: to take effective collective measures for the prevention and removal of threats to the peace, and for the suppression of acts of aggression or other breaches of the peace, and to bring about by peaceful means, and in conformity with the principles of justice and international law, adjustment or settlement of international disputes or situations which might lead to a breach of the peace;
2. To develop friendly relations among nations based on respect for the principle of equal rights and self-determination of peoples, and to take other appropriate measures to strengthen universal peace.
3. To achieve international cooperation in solving international problems of an economic, social, cultural, or humanitarian character, and in promoting and encouraging respect for human rights and for fundamental freedoms for all without distinction as to race, sex, language, or religion; and
4. To be a center for harmonizing the actions of nations in the attainment of these common ends.”
UN Article 2
“The Organization and its Members, in pursuit of the Purposes stated in Article 1, shall act in accordance with the following Principles.
1. The Organization is based on the principle of the sovereign equality of all its members.
2. All Members, in order to ensure to all of them the rights and benefits resulting from membership, shall fulfill in good faith the obligations assumed by them in accordance with the present Charter.
3. All Members shall settle their international disputes by peaceful means in such a manner that international peace and security, and justice, are not endangered.
4. All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations.
5. All Members shall give the United Nations every assistance in any action it takes in accordance with the present Charter, and shall refrain from giving assistance to any state against which the United Nations is taking preventive or enforcement action.
Article 2-4 is a key principle. As an example, today’s maps of every continent bear little resemblance to the maps of five centuries or even one century ago. Most of today’s tensions and conflicts have their roots in actions taken decades if not centuries ago. Not even the most learned historians could tell you who threw the first stone at every stage of evolution. Who was the chicken and who was the egg? Today’s global population has tripled since Taiwan became an independent state during China’s civil war of 1949. Six countries could claim a piece of Ukraine that was formalized by referendum as an independent state with the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. If nations are determined to re-establish old borders, there will never be peace. Gross economic inequality and the ravages of climate change will never be mitigated. Our grandchildren will ask what we were thinking, or if we were thinking at all.
The continuous ratcheting up of NATO military spending, as pushed recently by Donald Trump, was a provocation to non-NATO members to respond, especially Putin and Xi. If we continue this path of madness, we are unlikely to achieve any of the UN goals of world peace, net-zero emissions, and reasonable equality, and by 2050 we will leave the world’s nine billion people in a terrible mess.
World GDP for 2022 is estimated to be close to $100 trillion. The world has been spending 2.4% of GDP or $2.4 trillion annually on the military. A recent analysis by McKinsey global management consulting estimated that the cost of getting to net zero emissions is an additional $3.5 trillion (3.5% of GDP) every year until 2050, over and above what is already being spent. The cost of not spending the $3.5 trillion will be much higher.
Which countries can adequately fund their fair share of ever-escalating costs to repair the current damage caused by climate change (estimated at $360 billion for 2022 with only 40% covered by insurance), plus extra costs of mitigating and adapting to future climate change (estimated at $3.5 t per year), plus military costs ($2.4 t per year), plus the expected government services to maintain domestic health and stability? None!
There are 3 basic ways this war could end.
- Russia wins but is left responsible for a Ukraine whose infrastructure is destroyed, millions more people that hate them, Russia is surrounded by even more NATO countries, and Russia is possibly expelled from membership on the UN Security Council (See Reference 2)
- Ukraine wins, Russia’s economy and reputation is in tatters, Russia is surrounded by even more NATO countries. and Russia is possibly expelled from membership on the UN Security Council.
- Ukraine, Russia, NATO, and UN agree to revert to the borders of 2014, before Putin’s misadventures in Crimea, Russia salvages some measure of respect, and Putin is finished, one way or another.
Then after that, perhaps it is time for all countries to reset the annual goal for military spending from 2.4% to 1 % and put the other 1.4% or $1.4 trillion toward the mitigation of climate change. That would give the world twice the bang for the buck, and still leave $1 trillion for military spending to deal with rogue nations.
Eighty-five per cent of proven global oil and gas reserves reside in only 15 of 200 UN member countries. That mismatch has kept the world in turmoil for over 100 years. The technologies now available for the production and use of zero-emission energy offer the possibility of every country becoming self-sufficient in clean energy over the next 30 years. That is the other key step to ending the vicious spiraling up of climate change, conflict over energy, unaffordable military costs, growing social unrest, and mass migration.
Where are the Woodrow Wilsons and George Marshalls of today? Today’s population of 8 billion people is at least 4 times as complicated as Woodrow Wilson’s world of 2 billion in 1920. So the need for bold creative thinking is even more urgent. The above suggestions may sound impossible, but there is an urgent and growing need for bold creative thinking. Is there really another viable alternative, or do we just continue to grind 9 billion people into oblivion by 2050?
References
- https://bigthink.com/politics-current-affairs/americas-greatest-foreign-policy-successes-are-from-diplomacy-not-war/
- Expelling Russia from the UN Security Council — a How-to Guide – CEPA
In summary, some key points are worth repeating. There are three very good reasons for this energy revolution. And there is still time to mitigate these three reasons, provided there is not too much resistance to the needed changes. But fear of the inevitable is emanating from oil and gas-producing states and provinces and is a major cause of short-sighted thinking, misinformation, conspiracy theories, and vitriol infecting today’s public discourse. Our federal government can and is helping to turn the energy revolution into a positive force for the oil and gas-producing provinces as well as the entire country. Like old energy, each new type of energy has its strengths and weaknesses. But we need them all.
Hugh Holland is a retired engineering and manufacturing executive now living in Huntsville, Ontario.
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Jim Logagianes says
Dear Mr Holland
What if North America becomes a target with all the advanced military technology that is available today then what? We may all get the opportunity to witness the ravages of War first hand. I am just brimming with enthusiasm at the thought.
How many of you who support the Ukrainian offensive will enlist in the Armed Forces so that you can be a part of the first Canadian battalion to hit the ground ? Sadly droves of well trained and dedicated men and woman have left the military because of underfunding. A great way to increase moral in the ranks. Astoundingly similar to our current health care crisis.
FYI There are not many people enlisting these days so all ages are currently encouraged to apply, no medical exam required. You can take comfort in knowing that you can all hide behind the 4 tanks we’re sending over if they are still working. You might get some air cover eventually but don’t hold your breath. Trudeau might flip flop again on the funding. Our military has suffered insurmountable damage due to political interference.
Who would join and army that was ill equipped to defend itself ? When thanks to the liberals you can now simply sign up for MAID to achieve your goal. Our federal governments caring and only meaningful response to the Health Care Crisis to date other than the minuscule funding announcement .
What’s very interesting is that some of you have chosen to support a conflict when your own lives are not being threatened in any way.
What is taking place In Ukraine is a travesty, but it is not of our making. Corruption is rampant throughout that region. The break away republics are all trying to establish some form of legitimate governance.
The deaths in Ukraine due to the current conflict are already insurmountable. There has already been too much blood spilled on both sides in this conflict.
History is full of people who resorted to War and think nothing of sacrificing lives to achieve their goals. Human life means nothing to these Miscreants . Every U.S. president since I have been alive has supported a military conflict on foreign soil. Where was all the indignation from the masses during this continued assault on humanity throughout the years? We have all been witness to the atrocities of war, despite the fact that we were not directly involved in any of them.
Will the human race ever figure out that war is not the answer? it’s doubtful.
But what if:
All military spending around the world was used to save the planet and eliminate world hunger would that not make the world a better place for all of us?
We have the power to do that if we all agree on a path forward.