Well, it’s all over but the naval gazing. No political party got what they wanted. The Liberal Party under Mark Carney fell just short of the majority they coveted and were expected to get. The Conservatives, with Pierre Poilievre, failed to win government, and the New Democrats, under Jagmeet Singh, got thrown to the side of the road.
So, what happened?
Pierre Poilievre campaigned on the need for change, and clearly, most Canadians, with the largest turnout for a federal election in many years, wanted change, too. For some of them, getting rid of former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was change enough. A larger factor, however, is that during the election campaign, many Canadians saw Mark Carney, rather than Pierre Poilievre, as that agent for change.
They saw positive signs in his election platform, that he would move the Liberal Party away from the clutches of the far left, and back to its traditional place on the centre left of the political spectrum. They liked his non-confrontational style and partly because of this, they believed him best suited to deal with job number one and that is the threats to Canada from the Trump Administration in the United States.
In what was essentially a two-party, two-person race, Canadians did not give the Carney Liberals the strong mandate they wanted, but they did choose Carney, the new guy on the political block, over the devil they knew.
With a strong minority, my view is that the Carney Government should act like they have a majority. Barring some kind of catastrophe, no other minority party in the House of Commons, including the Conservatives, is going to force an election in the foreseeable future, and if they do, they will pay a huge price at the polls.
Canada needs strong leadership now, more so than in a long while. Although somewhat narrowly, Canadians have chosen Mark Carney to be that leader. He needs to be able to exercise that mandate without being held hostage by the NDP or the Bloc Québécois.
One of the strange outcomes of this national election is that the political party that came second won more seats than parties in previous elections needed to form a majority government in Canada.
Pierre Poilievre and his Conservative Party increased their seat count in Parliament considerably, and they also increased their popular vote across the country. Poilievre deserves credit for that. It may even allow him to hang on to his leadership in spite of a Tory penchant to scrap leaders who miss winning the big prize.
Poilievre has made it clear that he intends to stay on as Conservative Leader and a Conservative member in Alberta has already agreed to step aside in a safe riding to get him a seat in Parliament.
Whether that happens or not depends first on his elected caucus. That may not be a slam dunk for Poilievre because, thanks to Tory MP Michael Chong, who sponsored caucus reform legislation, the caucus will have the opportunity to vote in a secret ballot as to whether they want him to continue as leader.
Most, if not all, elected Conservatives are publicly supporting Poilievre. With the option of a secret ballot, another outcome could well be achieved behind closed doors.
Why?
Because this election was lost for the Conservatives by Pierre Poilievre and his campaign team and not by anyone else. Once the campaign was in full swing, almost every poll showed that Poilievre was the problem. Many people, at doors across the country, said they liked the Conservative Party platform but could not vote for its leader. He was seen to be too negative, far too confrontational, misogynous, and a little too much like Donald Trump.
Obviously, Poilievre’s own campaign people finally saw this as their last two weeks of ads completely ignored Poilievre.
The Montreal Gazette recently had a headline that read, “Elections aren’t for second place. Poilievre has to go.” I am not sure that I agree with that across the board, but in this instance, I do.
It is Pierre Poilievre who lost the election for the Conservatives, and he should pay the price for that, although there still may be enough alt-right Conservatives in the Tory caucus to see that he doesn’t. It is my belief that if Erin O’Toole remained as Conservative Leader after the 2021 election, the Conservatives today would have a majority government. Those Conservatives who can now decide who their leader will be going forward need to think about that.
Also, given the immediate challenges we now face from our neighbour to the south, is Pierre Poilievre the appropriate person to lead His Majesty’s Loyal Opposition?
In a recent newspaper article, Robin Sears, a former colleague of mine and a political pundit, said this: “At a moment when the federal government is going to war with a powerful and determined enemy, Poilievre’s parliamentary tactics – denounce, delay and paralyze – would be welcome fodder for U.S. President Donald Trump. He is a man experienced at sowing and reaping the rewards from a divided enemy… Trump is a master at divide and conquer.”
And so, the question to those who will determine Mr. Poilievre’s fate is, can a leopard change its spots?
Turning locally, it should not surprise anyone that incumbent Scott Aitchison was re-elected for his third term in the House of Commons (I believe he is now eligible for a pension.)
Aitchison is well known throughout Parry Sound-Muskoka, and he has done his homework. His riding also, with a few exceptions, has a history of Conservative representation. Aitchison ran a strong campaign and was rewarded by many of his constituents. It seems apparent now that Scott Aitchison’s clear victory last Monday was due, at least in part, to his ability to get his supporters to the polls.
I imagine, however, that Aitchison was a little more concerned about this election than he was about the previous two. The Liberal candidate in Parry Sound-Muskoka was Geordie Sabbagh. Unlike Scott Aitchison, he had almost no name recognition until shortly before the election was called. This was made more difficult for him by some municipalities in the riding prohibiting election signs on public property.
Nevertheless, Sabbagh also ran a strong campaign. In fact, his vote count of 27,656 was higher than Scott Aitchison’s vote count in both the 2019 and 2021 elections. My guess is that we will see more of Geordie Sabbagh in the future.
Briefly, a couple of other reflections from this election.
Watching the results last Monday, it was hard to miss the smirks on the biased faces of CBC anchors as they realized Pierre Poilievre would not be around to defund their network, which badly needs reform to deal with their rank partisanship.
Lastly, I predict Green Party Leader Elizabeth May will become Speaker of the House of Commons in the next parliamentary session. With results as they were, I would be surprised if any other party would be willing to lose a vote to the speakership. May ran for it last time and didn’t make it. I suspect she will this time unless, of course, Carney puts her in his cabinet.
The election is over, and Canadians have made their decision about who should lead them. The proof in the pudding, however, will be in concrete results, beginning with dealing with threats from the Trump Administration and then bringing a more moderate and positive approach to challenges facing our country.
That is what Canadians expect and now it is time to deliver.
Hugh Mackenzie
Hugh Mackenzie has held elected office as a trustee on the Muskoka Board of Education, a Huntsville councillor, a District councillor, and mayor of Huntsville. He has also served as chairman of the District of Muskoka and as chief of staff to former premier of Ontario, Frank Miller.
Hugh has also served on a number of provincial, federal and local boards, including chair of the Ontario Health Disciplines Board, vice-chair of the Ontario Family Health Network, vice-chair of the Ontario Election Finance Commission, and board member of Roy Thomson Hall, the National Theatre School of Canada, and the Anglican Church of Canada. Locally, he has served as president of the Huntsville Rotary Club, chair of Huntsville District Memorial Hospital, chair of the Huntsville Hospital Foundation, president of Huntsville Festival of the Arts, and board member of Community Living Huntsville.
In business, Hugh Mackenzie has a background in radio and newspaper publishing. He was also a founding partner and CEO of Enterprise Canada, a national public affairs and strategic communications firm established in 1986.
Currently, Hugh is president of C3 Digital Media Inc., the parent company of Doppler Online, and he enjoys writing commentary for Huntsville Doppler.
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Good morning Hugh, we’ve missed you, hope all is well with you.
I couldn’t agree more with your view of this, but I always agree with your view of things. I’m hoping you can touch on one nagging issue that seems to never be talked about, but just knaws in the pit of everyone’s stomach. How possible is it for Trump to annex us? It’s clear he hope to bankrupt our economy, create mass unemployment, and bloat Canada’s debt to the point of crashing.
I’d love to get your take on whether this is as possible as some of us are concerned about. The politicians will never openly even consider it for fear of mass panic, but in the face of public complacency, election is over, we did our duty, we need to inform them of just how vital this war really is, or at least inform how real the danger is of losing our Canada!
Please take care, and just know how many of us look to you to be our voice of truth and transparency in these days of trying to make sense of all the rhetoric, thanks Hugh!
Rod Boynton