It is getting pretty close to crunch time in Canada. In little more than a week, what is likely the most important national election in our lifetime will be over. Its outcome will have a direct effect on the future of this country as we face serious threats related to our economy and our sovereignty from our neighbour and former friend, the United States.
What has become very clear in the last few months is that this election is a two-person race. Most Canadians have come to realize the importance of this election and will not sacrifice a vote on political parties that have no chance of winning.
That leaves the Liberal Party and the Conservative Party and their leaders, Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre. As the campaign currently stands, it is a horse race between these two parties although, assuming the polls are correct, the Liberals are currently ahead by five points as recent polling shows that party at 44% with the Conservatives at 39%.
There are those who see the 25-point collapse in Conservative support over the last few months or so as a sign that Pierre Poilievre and his party have blown their chance to become government.
That is not factually correct as most of those votes were never to be for Mr. Poilievre in the first place. They were potential votes that were strategically placed, or parked, with the Conservatives by Liberals and intended to send a clear message to Justin Trudeau that his time was up. It worked, and as soon as the former Prime Minister exited stage-left, most of those votes returned to their traditional home.
In my view, the reality is that the Conservatives and the Liberals have been, for some time, relatively close to each other, both in popularity and in voter intention.
And so, the question to be asked now is which of these two men, Carney or Poilievre, is best suited to lead Canada through extremely challenging times? It will be a surprise to many that I do not yet have an opinion on that. Perhaps it is because I have seen too much of Pierre Poilievre and not enough of Mark Carney.
Both Poilievre and Carney have strongly opposed the tariffs and sovereignty threats coming from American President Donald Trump. Which one is best suited to put those issues completely to bed, is still unclear to me.
Both of these leaders have their strengths and weaknesses. We will not end this election with a perfect Prime Minister.
Poilievre and Carney have a few things in common. They both are contesting Ottawa ridings, they are both from Alberta and both of their fathers were teachers. It pretty well stops there however, except perhaps for a mutual determination to find a way to mitigate Donald Trump’s influence on Canada.
To his credit, Mark Carney appears to be moving the Liberal Party back to its traditional place on the middle left of the political spectrum. However, it will be a challenge for him to do so with a caucus and cabinet primarily consisting of those who tolerated being held hostage for a number of years by the left-wing New Democratic Party.
Carney’s greatest strength is his experience and generally positive accomplishments as an economist and business executive. These should not be undervalued.
His greatest weakness is that he has few political skills entering an arena where it is all about politics, especially when it comes to dealing with the Trump Administration.
Pierre Poilievre, on the other hand, has had very little real-world experience but is a consummate politician. In this day and age, with the challenges we face, that too should not be undervalued. This is a political game, not a bureaucratic one.
Recently, Mark Carney unveiled an impressive campaign platform regarding a new direction and fresh initiatives that, by his own admission, will result in billions of new spending at a time when Canadians are increasingly worried about a challenging economy and the need to control government spending.
The Poilievre Conservatives have also tabled some good proposals in their election platform, including cutting unnecessary government spending, being tougher on crime with harsher sentences and parole reform, eliminating the sales tax for first-time home buyers and generally making it easier for Canadians to live their lives without an abundance of government interference.
But then, they also highlight some initiatives, like defunding the CBC and restoring plastic products, which polling shows that many Conservatives are against, although, in the case of the CBC, many also support reform when it comes to political bias. Such proposals may appeal to Poilievre’s base, but it risks losing those who are on the fence when deciding who to vote for. That makes little political sense to me.
I also believe that Pierre Poilievre has spent too much time saying that Canada is broken. Most Canadians, of every political stripe, acknowledge the challenges, but do not believe Canada is broken. They believe we are stronger than that, and that we always come together when the chips are down. In fairness, Poilievre has modified his approach to a broken Canada in recent days and instead focussed on the Liberal’s record as he should.
Notwithstanding the slight lead that the Liberals currently hold in the coming election, I continue to believe that the jury is still out. The last week of any election is often the most turbulent and uncertain.
What concerns me the most, however, is the prospect of a minority government. In my view, we must have a government with majority control in Parliament so that hard decisions and strong leadership can prevail without being held hostage by a minority agenda. This is no time for Canada to be seen as having weak leadership.
Turning briefly to our Riding of Parry Sound Muskoka, it is interesting to note that the election here may be somewhat of a horserace as well. It probably leans toward Scott Aitchison as he is the incumbent and this riding votes Conservative more often than it does Liberal. He is also well known for his community service in Muskoka.
But like the national campaign, we have effectively a two-person race in this Riding and either Scott Aitchison or Geordie Sabbagh will be representing Parry Sound Muskoka in the next Parliament.
Geordie Sabbagh, the Liberal candidate, has run a strong and positive campaign avoiding in most instances partisan attacks and focusing instead on his view that the Liberal Party and its leader Mark Carney are best suited to deal with the serious issues confronting Canada. I suspect the gap between him and Scott Aitchison will not be as wide as one might have anticipated at the beginning of this election campaign.
Scott Aitchison has also run a strong campaign. However, I am aware of a number of Conservatives who, because of concerns related to Pierre Poilievre and, fairly or not, their comparison of him to Donald Trump, plan to vote Liberal this time around.
I sense too that Scott Aitchison recognizes that this is not a run-of-the-mill election in a relatively safe riding, that his leader is not universally liked here, and that many voters are focussed on who can best handle Donald Trump. Some of his actions in recent days, including, not unlike his leader, an attack on local media, are an indication, at least to me, that the race in this riding may be closer than we initially thought.
Voting turnout at advance polls yesterday in Parry Sound and Muskoka was close to a record. Most Canadians, I believe, no matter which side of the political fence they are on, recognize that this federal election will be consequential. As a result, my guess is that voter turnout across Canada will be heavier than usual.
Just days from now, Canadians will decide which party and which leader they believe can best serve Canadians, protect our sovereignty and unite our country.
In a democracy, the voters are never wrong, and this is one time when we simply cannot be.
Hugh Mackenzie
Hugh Mackenzie has held elected office as a trustee on the Muskoka Board of Education, a Huntsville councillor, a District councillor, and mayor of Huntsville. He has also served as chairman of the District of Muskoka and as chief of staff to former premier of Ontario, Frank Miller.
Hugh has also served on a number of provincial, federal and local boards, including chair of the Ontario Health Disciplines Board, vice-chair of the Ontario Family Health Network, vice-chair of the Ontario Election Finance Commission, and board member of Roy Thomson Hall, the National Theatre School of Canada, and the Anglican Church of Canada. Locally, he has served as president of the Huntsville Rotary Club, chair of Huntsville District Memorial Hospital, chair of the Huntsville Hospital Foundation, president of Huntsville Festival of the Arts, and board member of Community Living Huntsville.
In business, Hugh Mackenzie has a background in radio and newspaper publishing. He was also a founding partner and CEO of Enterprise Canada, a national public affairs and strategic communications firm established in 1986.
Currently, Hugh is president of C3 Digital Media Inc., the parent company of Doppler Online, and he enjoys writing commentary for Huntsville Doppler.
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My goodness Hughie. You are still the consummate politician too. I am pleased to see you weigh in on this…BUT you really managed to walk the tightrope in avoiding actually endorsing either candidate. I will admit that my vote this time is no secret. I voted for Sabbagh early on. My ballot went to Elections Canada in the diplomatic pouch from Jamaica on April 7. I have always been politically non-partisan. Always voted for the candidate rather than the party – knowing that all politics are indeed local. And thank ‘old’ colleague for Doppler. I read it every morning.
After listening to the English debate all the leaders except one had revealed all areas of influence in the financial world except one. That was Mark Carney. In this nation it is sometimes hard to find honest and truthful news. Read each parties platform before making a decision would be wise.
Great perspective Hugh! Thanks!