Two months ago, Pierre Poilievre and his federal Conservative Party were polling 20 points ahead of the governing Liberals, an almost insurmountable lead with an election on the horizon. Today, there is only one polling point between the two parties and that is well within the margin of error. Indeed, it will not surprise me if the Liberals pull ahead of the Conservatives in the next week or so, at least for a while.
So, what happened?
First, the polling numbers over the last several months, although accurate, did not indicate how many people would actually vote for the Conservatives as much as it revealed how many Liberals were fed up with Justin Trudeau, wanted him gone, and were prepared to park their potential vote elsewhere until he was on his way out the door.
That is not a new strategy. People who like their party but not their leader have been doing that for many years. This time, however, it worked. Between the time Justin Trudeau announced his resignation as Liberal leader and Mark Carney became Prime Minister of Canada, disaffected Liberals returned to their home base in droves. If Conservative organizers did not see that coming months ago, they should seek another profession.
Recently, Mark Carney has emphasized his differences from Justin Trudeau and has taken steps to shift the Liberal Party from the far left, closer to the centre of the political spectrum.
Carney has talked about smaller government and followed through with that by appointing a significantly reduced Cabinet. He has taken steps to abolish the consumer carbon tax which had become an albatross around the Trudeau government’s neck. He has promised a focused government, dealing with Canada’s immediate needs and he has put less critical issues and government initiatives on the back burner. He has told Donald Trump in plain language that Canada will never be a part of the United States.
It is not surprising then, that many Canadians look upon Mark Carney favourably.
However, Mark Carney still has a great deal to prove. Not unlike Pierre Poilievre, he has shown signs of trying to control the media, and in the long run that never works. He will face tough questions about his involvement in one of Canada’s largest property development companies’ decision to move its head office to the United States, despite his previous denial that he had had anything to do with it, when in fact, he did. Also, whether he likes it or not, Mark Carney is now a politician and not a bureaucrat and he will have to show that he knows the difference. Politicians win elections. Bureaucrats generally do not. While he will try to rest on his past accomplishments, others will try to tear them apart. Politics is a blood sport and Mark Carny has only just entered the arena.
All signs point to a federal election very soon, and there should be no doubt that we need one, although in politics, there are always surprises. Mark Carney should not expect a coronation like the one he received from Liberals a week ago. In spite of the current Carney honeymoon, Pierre Poilievre still has an even chance of becoming Canada’s next Prime Minister.
Poilievre has successfully tapped into the suppressed anger and frustration of many Canadians, emotions that have been exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic and the perception of a spendthrift government that failed to address the real issues facing Canadians. This ability to connect with the electorate’s dissatisfaction gives him a strong base of support.
Pierre Poilievre has positioned himself as a serious opponent to Mark Carney, leveraging his experience and political acumen to challenge Carney’s new leadership. While Carney has made strides in shifting the Liberal Party toward the center and addressing some of his predecessor’s controversial policies, Poilievre’s consistent messaging that Carney’s Liberal government is much the same as the Trudeau administration will have some effect.
As well, Poilievre’s campaign is likely to focus on practical solutions and fiscal responsibility, themes that resonate with voters who are concerned about government spending and economic stability. His proposals to reduce government size, eliminate unnecessary taxes, and streamline bureaucratic processes can attract a substantial portion of the electorate who prioritize financial prudence and effective governance.
Also, Poilievre’s ability to mobilize and energize his supporters cannot be underestimated. His grassroots campaign strategies and engagement with the public through various platforms have created a loyal and motivated voter base. This mobilization effort could translate into a significant voter turnout, which is critical in a tightly contested election.
But, like Mark Carney, Pierre Poilievre has some serious obstacles to face.
I have never met Andrew Tumilty. He is now the Director of Issues Management and Crisis Communication for Enterprise Canada, a national firm for which, some years ago, I was a founding partner and CEO. He has recently written an excellent article in the Toronto Star, in which his first paragraph said this:
“If Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives lose the next federal election, it will not be because the Liberals changed leaders. It will be because the narrative of the election changed, and Poilievre couldn’t find the right role for himself in the new story.”
Tumilty is absolutely right. Thanks to U.S. President Donald Trump, his tariffs and his threat to our sovereignty, the game has changed significantly, and Pierre Poilievre needs to change with it if he wants a chance at the top job.
There is really only one issue, the one ballot question in this election, and that is who can best deal with the Trump Administration to protect and even enhance Canada’s future. Who has the leadership skills to accomplish that?
This election is no longer about the carbon tax or other liberal issues. It is no longer about Justin Trudeau or how allegedly Canada is broken. Trudeau is history and no longer Pierre Poilievre’s punching bag. And thanks to Donald Trump who, in his delusion, may think that Canada is broken, most Canadians are now more united than ever before.
So, Pierre Poilievre has to stop expressing negativity and using Trump-like labels on those he opposes. His campaign must pivot to a strong demonstration of why he is best qualified to confront Trump and his MAGA supporters head-on.
He has to demonstrate that he is not a watered-down, Canadian version of Donald Trump, which, if they didn’t before, most Canadians will now firmly reject. He must defend Canada as a strong, independent, sovereign country and not one that is broken. And it is he who must warn Trump, his sidekick Musk, and his MAGA cohorts to stay the hell out of Canada’s election.
The federal election, when it comes, is now going to be a horse race. But it must be a race where there is a clear winner. At this point in our history, Canada cannot afford a minority government. Seldom before have we needed a strong government with a clear mandate and not a government that has to prostitute itself or second guess every decision in order to remain in power.
Both Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre are strong candidates. They both have their strengths, and they have vastly different perspectives on the future of Canada.
A vigorous election campaign will give Canadians an opportunity to look more closely at both individuals and assess who can best lead this country through one of its darkest times and come out the other end with a stronger and more prosperous Canada, standing on its own feet and being envied once again, as one of the best places in the world to live.
The people of Canada have a choice to make. It will not be easy. Neither the Conservative or Liberal Parties nor their leaders should be underestimated. This election campaign must determine who can do the best job for Canada under serious present circumstances, and the elbows will be up.
It is a whole new ball game and it has never been more important to get it right.
Hugh Mackenzie
Hugh Mackenzie has held elected office as a trustee on the Muskoka Board of Education, a Huntsville councillor, a District councillor, and mayor of Huntsville. He has also served as chairman of the District of Muskoka and as chief of staff to former premier of Ontario, Frank Miller.
Hugh has also served on a number of provincial, federal and local boards, including chair of the Ontario Health Disciplines Board, vice-chair of the Ontario Family Health Network, vice-chair of the Ontario Election Finance Commission, and board member of Roy Thomson Hall, the National Theatre School of Canada, and the Anglican Church of Canada. Locally, he has served as president of the Huntsville Rotary Club, chair of Huntsville District Memorial Hospital, chair of the Huntsville Hospital Foundation, president of Huntsville Festival of the Arts, and board member of Community Living Huntsville.
In business, Hugh Mackenzie has a background in radio and newspaper publishing. He was also a founding partner and CEO of Enterprise Canada, a national public affairs and strategic communications firm established in 1986.
Currently, Hugh is president of C3 Digital Media Inc., the parent company of Doppler Online, and he enjoys writing commentary for Huntsville Doppler.
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The only time Conservatives stop shooting themselves in the foot is when they pause to reload.
Once again Cons, like Scheer, O’Toole and PP self-destruct just before the election.
PP got his wish that the carbon tax is axed.
By the Liberals.
PP also got his wish that JT step down.
To be replaced with a candidate with vast financial and environmental experience from around the world.
Prime Minister material.
Unlike whiny career politician PP.
Be careful what you wish for.