Hugh Mackenzie is taking a break from Listen Up! This is a guest commentary by Dave Wilkin.
Donald Trump’s win was stunning, as he captured all seven swing states, 50% of the popular vote, and broadened his voter base across many demographics. The pollsters missed it, as did Democrat party leaders and strategists, who are trying to determine what went wrong.
It’s really not that hard to see why Trump won. He focused on the issues most Americans are concerned about. Topping the list, economic worries, stemming mostly from the high cost of living. Just as James Carville, Bill Clinton’s strategist said in 1992, “it’s the economy, stupid”. Also high on the list was illegal immigration, deadly drugs and costly foreign wars.
In contrast, VP Kamala Harris opted for continuation of President Biden’s policies, offering little new. Democrats discounted polling that showed most American voters thought the country was headed in the wrong direction and wanted change. Instead, they focused on macro economic accomplishments, abortion and attacked Trump personally, including claiming that democracy was on the ballot. Despite markets reaching record highs, many in the working/middleclass abandoned the Democrats. This continued a global trend of struggling incumbent governments getting tossed out.
So how might a Trump 2.0 presidency be different? He will have fewer restraints – more people ideologically closer to him, no concerns over re-election, and experience on how to work the levers of power to achieve his objectives. A Republican controlled House & Senate and Supreme Court further strengthens his hand.
His administration will face a more challenging, shifting, multi-polar world order – a more aggressive and powerful China, an accelerating India and other fast rising Asian countries. Slowing economies in Europe, stressed by the Ukraine war and an increasingly aggressive Russia (China backed) is additional evidence of that shift. The war in the Middle East has also raised global tensions and concerns over energy security. Trump’s win and his stronger America first agenda needs to be seen in the context of this shifted global picture.
So, what does it mean for Canada?
Much is at stake, with 75% of our exports US bound, and Trump promising big tariff increases, recently bumped up to 25% if we fail to address border security concerns. It’s likely a bargaining ploy and being lumped in with Mexico on border security certainly isn’t fair, but we must take his threat very seriously. On this side of the border, we now face a potential flood of migrants fleeing before Trump’s deportation actions begin, which would make dealing with our immigration and border challenges much harder.
The Trudeau government’s NATO defense spending target miss is another problem. The US currently comprises about two thirds of all NATO defence spending, so Trump has leverage, and he’s using it. Europe is upping its game, but Canada remains near the bottom of the list (as a share of GDP). To meet our NATO commitment, Canada would need to double defense spending, to $82 billion annually by 2032, and even that may be insufficient.
On Climate-change and energy policy, the Trudeau government will be out of step with the new US administration. Trump will abandon much of Biden’s IRA and lower regulations to promote US oil and gas. This could be a problem, as US bound Canadian oil and gas comprises almost 20% of all Canadian exports. Additionally, funding to developing countries to help them address their climate-change/energy transition costs could be at risk too, as the US is by far the largest contributor. The recent tripling of the overall target to $300 billion, announced at the COP29 convention further raises the stakes. Pressure is likely to only increase on the other developed countries, including Canada, to not only accelerate their contributions, but potentially to help fill any future US funding gap.
At the same time, Trump’s election presents opportunities. The US will need Canadian energy and natural resources for the foreseeable future, and our integrated manufacturing systems work well together. So Canada is well positioned to be an even closer partner with the US to face the challenges ahead. But this will require a clear plan with important adjustments, especially significant new investments in both border security and defense, changes in energy/climate policy and a tone shift. Trudeau’s government has been negative and disparaging of Trump, including trying to scare Canadians into not voting conservative, painting them as ‘MAGA’ politicians. Not surprising, Trump’s view of our PM is poor, having called him “two-faced”, “weak” and a “far-left lunatic”. He also likely see’s him as a lame duck.
Can the Liberals pivot and gain traction with Trump, or will it require a new government? US Democrats learned the hard way that when voters want change, you had better listen to them. So far, that message hasn’t broken through for the Liberals. That may change, but the clock is ticking down.
Dave Wilkin is a Professional Engineer, with a master’s degree in Electrical Engineering from the University of Toronto. His career spans over 40 years in Information Technology, banking, energy, and consulting. A former resident of Huntsville, Ontario, he now lives in Burlington but still spends time at his Huntsville area cottage.
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Trump is certainly right in his opinion of Trudeau. He is a “two-faced”, “weak” and a “far-left lunatic”. He also lies and is unethical. I hope Canadians see him for what he is.
One thing the commentary didn’t mention is the impact Trump’s alliance with RFK Jr. had on voters. RFK Jr. will be charged with cleaning up toxic food ingredients that exist in so many of our packaged foods. He will go after the toxic glyphosate, and other pesticides, that are sprayed on many crops. Glyphosate has been identified by the WHO as a carcinogen and is used extensively in the US and Canada. He will also work towards getting pharmaceutical companies libel for the products they produce, notably the vaccines they pump into our kids starting at birth. Right now the pharma companies have no liability for any vaccine injuries. The US is one of the unhealthiest countries in the world yet spend more on ‘health’ care than most others and they have the highest vaccination rates in children. Given that Canada gets a lot of food from the US, and generally follows US direction on health matters, I’m hoping that the work RFK Jr. plans to do will have some effect on Canadian food quality and healthcare as well.