By Hugh Holland
One hundred and twenty years ago, the transition from the horse and buggy to vehicles powered by internal combustion engines (ICEs) took nearly 50 years. Today, the world must again manage an orderly transition from ICEs and oil-based fuels to electric vehicles in 50 years (2000 to 2050) for two very important reasons: to help avoid a climate catastrophe and to replace oil as the sole and finite source of motor fuels well before proven global reserves of oil are depleted. You be the judge about which of those two reasons is the most important to this and future generations.
EVs are not new. 60 years ago (pop. 3 billion), battery-powered lift trucks were widely used to eliminate dangerous exhaust emissions in enclosed factories and mines. Today (pop. 8 billion) the earth’s atmosphere is the factory roof that is trapping those dangerous emissions. But many people still have questions and concerns about electric vehicles. The purpose of this article is to try to answer the most frequent questions and concerns.
- Oil is a finite resource. How long will proven reserves last?
The audience was on their feet with fists pumping as Donald Trump declared in his July 18 acceptance speech, “We will drill baby drill. We have more liquid gold under our feet than any other country by far. We are a nation that has the opportunity to make an absolute fortune with its energy.” That might have been true 60 years ago, but certainly not today. The next morning, the fact-checkers at the New York Times said, “This is false. According to the US Energy Information Administration, (and the International Energy Agency) the US has proven crude oil reserves of 44 billion barrels, which would put the country in 10th place. Venezuela, with 304 billion barrels of oil reserves, is in first place, followed by Saudi Arabia (259 billion), Iran (209 billion), Canada (170 billion) and Iraq (145 billion). The United States ranks fourth in the world in natural gas reserves.” Simple arithmetic shows that on their own, US domestic oil reserves would last only 6 years. (44, 000,000,000 bl / usage of 19,687,287 bl x / day x 365 days = 6.1 years)
Even if the US could double its reserves, which is beyond imagination and at what cost, they would last 12 years. BP’s arithmetic shows the world’s proven reserves could last 50 years. Canada could be among the last five oil producers as smaller global reserves are depleted. That is why it is especially important for Canada to aggressively reduce its huge emissions from oil production.
- How much do oil-powered vehicles contribute to climate change?
Globally, extracting and refining oil and burning it in internal combustion engines is responsible for 33% of human-produced emissions. In Canada, that number is closer to 50% because a full 1/3rd of our natural gas production is consumed to make heat needed to separate bitumen from the Alberta oil sands. That natural gas heat can be replaced by Geothermal and Small Modular Reactors, which can supply more than enough clean electricity for Alberta and, at the same time, can co-generate essentially free and clean heat needed to melt the bitumen.
- What are the types of electric vehicles and how do their energy efficiencies compare?
On a “well-to-wheels” basis, Battery-Electric Vehicles (BEVs) deliver 73% of their original energy to the wheels. Hydrogen-electric vehicles (HEVs) deliver 22% to the wheels because clean hydrogen is made by using electricity to split water into hydrogen and oxygen, but you must first make the electricity. The hydrogen is stored in a tank and then recombined with oxygen in a hydrogen fuel cell to make electricity to power the wheels. Liquid fuels in internal combustion engines deliver only 13% of the original energy to the wheels because most of their original energy is wasted as heat through the radiator and exhaust systems.
- What does regenerative braking have to do with the energy efficiency of an EV?
Regenerative braking uses the vehicle’s momentum (kinetic energy) to put electricity back into the battery instead of wasting that energy as brake friction and heat. When you ease up on the accelerator, the electric motor becomes a generator that makes electricity and slows the vehicle. For average drivers, 15% to 30% of the vehicle’s kinetic energy is captured, and a very pleasant driving experience is created. Traditional mechanical brakes are still there, but you seldom need to use them.
- What about charging EVs at home and on the road?
A Level 1 – 110-volt charger (comes with the car) works with any 110-volt outlet and provides 6.4 km per hour or 8.5 hours for a 55 km day.
A Level 2 – 220-volt charger (also comes with the car). It needs a 220-volt clothes dryer outlet and provides 40 km per hour or 1.4 hours for a 55 km day, or 10 hours at the 7 pm to 7 am off-peak hydro rate for a full charge.
Charging in condos is more problematic, but companies are emerging that specialize in designing, financing, and installing condo garage charging systems.
Level 3—Public DC fast chargers add 125 km in 10 minutes or 36 minutes for a full charge. Canada already has 27,000 public chargers, including 5,000 DC fast chargers. Your car will tell you when to charge and where to find an available charging station. The Trans-Canada highway and all 400-series highways have DC fast chargers at convenient intervals.
- What about EV range in summer and winter?
The average car in North America is driven 20,000 km per year (55 km per day) Average EV range is 450 km, so the car can go 450 / 55 = 8 days on a full charge. On a longer trip, DC fast chargers can add 125 km in a 10-minute rest break, or 250 km in 2 rest breaks. We should be taking rest breaks every 3 hours or 300 km.
In winter, the range is reduced for both EVs and ICEs, but both are manageable. Commercial fleet data shows that at -18° C, ICEs lose 19% of range due to warm-up, idling, and tire inflation. EVs lose about 29% of range due to cabin heating and tire inflation. To maximize range, EVs can be programmed to pre-heat the cabin at a designated time while plugged in. Toronto Star “Wheels” writers took a Tesla to Timmins to Sault Ste Marie to Detroit and back to Toronto on the coldest weekend of last winter. They had no problem with range or finding chargers.
- How do EVs compare with ICEs in cost to buy and operate?
EV prices are coming down as production volumes provide increased economies of scale. EVs are currently priced from $6,000 to $10,000 (about 15%) higher than comparable gasoline-powered vehicles. The higher vehicle price is offset by the EV’s lower energy and maintenance costs, so overall monthly costs are equal.
- What about hybrids?
Hybrid gas-electric vehicles are an interim solution. They are midway between gas-powered and electric vehicles in terms of emissions and costs to buy and operate. With two powertrains, hybrids are more complicated, so they have more to maintain and go wrong.
- Which manufacturers are now producing EVs?
All global manufacturers of light-duty vehicles and mobile equipment are now making BEVs. But batteries are too heavy for heavy-duty and long-haul applications, so those manufacturers are making HEVs. Kenworth (USA), Daimler (Germany), Volvo (Sweden), and Hyundai (Korea) are now making HE heavy-duty trucks. Caterpillar (USA), JCB (UK), and Komatsu (Japan) are making construction equipment using both BE and HE technology. John Deer is making BE tractors. Electric city buses are being made by BYD (China), Volvo (Sweden), Daimler (Germany), Hyundai (Korea), Proterra, Gillig, Blue Bird, and Lion (USA). Alstom (France) is making HE high-speed passenger trains that do not require overhead or rail-mounted electricity conductors. Ballard Power (Vancouver) has made long-haul HE buses and is now making an HE locomotive for CP rail freight operations. Rolls-Royce is developing hydrogen-powered piston and jet engines for aircraft. The U.S. Department of Energy selected Pratt & Whitney to develop high-efficiency hydrogen-fuelled propulsion technology for commercial aviation.
- How long will it take to make the transition to EVs?
To engineer and test hundreds of new-tech vehicle designs and to convert about 1,000 global manufacturing plants will take from 2000 to 2035. To replace 1.3 billion light-duty vehicles will take 1,300,000,000 / 75,000,000 per year manufacturing capacity = 17 years (2020 to 2040)
- Where will all that electricity come from?
EVs are 60% more energy-efficient than ICEs, so we already have enough electricity for mostly overnight charging in BC, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, and Newfoundland, where most of our electricity is reliably produced 24/7 by hydro and nuclear sources. Continuously producing Zero-emission Geothermal and Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) will be added as required.
Fifty per cent of our oil consumption goes to gasoline production, which will be replaced by electricity for EVs, and 50% goes to diesel and jet fuel, which will be replaced by hydrogen. Wind and solar outputs tend to be counter-seasonal, so Hybrid Wind / Solar farms are ideal for producing hydrogen, which provides the energy storage required for intermittent sources. Hydro Quebec and Newfoundland Hydro already have contracts to provide clean hydrogen to Germany.
11. What about power failures?
Gas stations will be down, and gas-powered vehicles with a low tank will be stuck. EVs that top up at home every night will seldom be stuck. Home generators can charge your EV at 110 volts.
- What about EV warranties?
The typical base coverage for EVs is the same as that for ICEs: 3 years / 60,000 km. The powertrain warranty is 8 years / 160,000 km on the EV propulsion battery vs. five years / 100,000 km on ICE powertrains.
- What about fires, floods, and insurance?
US National Traffic Safety Board data shows the number of fires per 100,000 sales at 3,424 for hybrids, 1,529 for gas, and 25 for electric. Hybrids are higher because they have both gas and electrical components packed together tightly in the same space.
The UK Automobile Association found there is no difference between an EV and an ICE regarding what you should do when confronted with flood water. Proceed with great caution and never drive into moving water or water that is more than 10 cm (4 inches) deep. EVs are designed to ensure that the batteries, motors, and high-voltage wiring are sealed and well-protected from water. When an ICE engine takes in water, it stalls immediately and is damaged.
Insurance company data shows 6.1% of EVs are write-offs after collisions vs 18.4% of ICEs. EV battery protection is second only to passenger protection.
- What about funding for road maintenance?
Motor fuel taxes DO NOT directly fund road maintenance. Sales taxes on both vehicles and fuels go to general revenue, which funds road maintenance. The decline in tax revenues from the sale of ICE vehicles and fuels will be more than offset by reduced environmental damage and healthcare costs, as well as increasing tax revenues from the sale of EVs, electricity, and hydrogen.
Considering that 33% of global emissions come from extracting and refining oil for use in internal combustion engines, the transition to battery-electric and hydrogen-electric vehicles and mobile equipment is arguably the single most important strategy in the mitigation of climate change, and just as importantly, the replacement of a finite resource before we run out of it. People are always wary of change, especially when it comes to one of the biggest purchases they will ever make. Hopefully these answers will help people to be more comfortable when the time comes for them to make that choice.
Hugh Holland
Hugh Holland is a retired engineering and manufacturing executive now living in Huntsville, Ontario.
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An EV may only cost $100/year for “fuel” in Ontario if you opt for the new ultra low 2.8 cents per kWh overnight rate.
Instead of $100 every week or two for gas. See calculation below.
Actually EV owners get FREE “fuel” courtesy of the gas burners because EV owners avoid paying the carbon tax on gas but still get the big rebate.
For the two of us the carbon tax rebate is $920/year. Far more than we pay in the tax. YMMV.
Of course Poilievre wants to axe that green benefit that many people, especially low incomes, depend on.
There is so much excess power available overnight in Ontario it’s often worth less than nothing.
We sometimes have to pay neighbouring states to take it believe it or not.
Selling it for only 2.8 cents is better for taxpayers than paying to get rid of it.
Which is why zero new generation or distribution infrastructure is needed in Ontario for EVs so long as most continue to charge overnight at low rates..
Even if all cars, not just new ones, suddenly went EV they would only use half the 30% excess that exists right now overnight.
On most grids demand drops 30% at night which is when EVs typically charge.
Go to IESO to see the typical demand drop on a graph.
We switched to the new ultra low 2.8 cents rate and save $200/year without even having an EV, yet.
Many other hours during the week it’s also a lower rate except for the 28.6 cents per kWh rate 4-9 pm weekdays.
We avoid that most of the time with the BBQ and a toaster oven (1/4 the energy of a full size oven).
We have timers on the hot water tank and hot tub so they only ever heat at the ultra low rate.
2.8 cents (4.3 cent including delivery) is cheaper than natural gas heat (including the ever increasing carbon tax).
Our electric bills are now often less than 5 years ago.
For many people much more expensive, GHG emitting, natural gas hot water tanks would be obsolete.
Assuming the electric tank is big enough for all the hot water needed in the morning when it’s off.
The dishwasher is also programmed to only run in the middle of the night when the hot water tank is on.
$100/year calculation.
A Tesla Model 3 uses 15 kWh per 100 km.
The average yearly distance for Canadians drivers is 15,000 km.
That means in a year a Model 3 would use 15,000 X 15/100 = 2250 kWh x $.043 (.028 + .015 per kWh delivery) = $96.75 incremental cost for the year if you only charge at home at the ultra low overnight rate.
Some people think EV charging requires a huge amount of energy.
Not really.
2250 kWh per year is only 6.2 kWh average per day. Peanuts. Your a/c and electric hot water tank use far more than that per day.
There is a $5,000 federal EV rebate available. This changes the economics quite a bit.
For details search ” Zero-emission vehicles – Incentives”
Many provinces have additional rebates as well. Not Ontario since Doug Ford eliminated it.
Ontario is EV hostile since Doug Ford.
He even ripped functioning EV chargers out of GO stations claiming “EVs are only for the rich.”
As EVs continue to drop in price and ICE vehicles continue to rise the rebates will be phased out as they won’t be needed.
Once EVs cost less than the ICE equivalent in a few years almost everyone will want one when they need a new car.
Cheaper to buy and already are much cheaper to operate.
Chinese EV maker BYD is planning to sell EVs in Canada next year.
Their EVs cost less than the ICE equivalent, without rebates, right now but Canada may impose huge tariffs on them like the US have.
The Chinese may impose huge tariffs on many Canadian products in retaliation.
We will see if Canada prevents low cost EVs from being sold here, as they are in 50 other countries, while at the same time mandating the sale of EVs.